Merkezi Devlet Borcu, Refah ve Askeri Harcamalar İlişkisi: Yüksek Gelirli OECD Ülkeleri ve PVAR Analizi

Bu çalışma 1999-2012 dönemini kapsayan 31 Yüksek Gelirli OECD ülkesine ait askeri harcamaların, eğitim harcamalarının, sağlık harcamalarının, sosyal harcamalar ve diğer transfer harcamalarının merkezi devlet borçları üzerindeki etkilerini sabit etkiler modelini kullanarak ve değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini ise PVAR dinamik panel veri modelini Panel OLS ve GMM ile ayrı ayrı tahmin ederek analiz etmektedir. Sabit etkiler modeli askeri harcamalar ve sağlık harcamalarının merkezi devlet borcu üzerinde sırasıyla olumlu ve olumsuz etkileri olduğunu ortaya göstermiştir. Dinamik nedensellik ve etki tepki analizlerine göre, sağlık harcamaları hariç, diğer harcama tiplerinden merkezi devlet borcuna doğru nedensellik ilişkisi mevcuttur. Bununla beraber, iki yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi sadece merkezi devlet borcu ve askeri harcamalar arasında bulunmuştur

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Merkezi Devlet Borcu, Askeri Harcamalar, Merkezi Devlet Sağlık

The Central Government Debts, Welfare and Warfare Expenditure Nexus: The High Income Members of OECD and PVAR Analysis

This study uses the fixed effect model to analyze possible effects of the military, educational and health expenditures, subsidies and other transfer charges on the central government debts, and the PVAR dynamic panel data model with separate OLS and GMM estimations to analyze causality relationships among the variables for 31 High Income OECD countries in 1999-2012 period. The fixed effect model showed that military and health expenditures have positive and negative effects on the debts respectively. According to dynamic causality and impulse response analyses, the other types of expenditures, except health expenditures, have causality relationships towards the debts. However, a bidirectional causality relation is found only between the debt and military expenditures

Keywords:

Government Debt, Military Expenditure, Government Health Expenditure,

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VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Lag FPE 8.12e-12 6.89e-12* 7.09e-12 9.11e-12 9.69e-12 8.57e-12 5 -11.32867

Roots of Characteristic Polynomial Root

169192 - 0.220062i

169192 + 0.220062i 0.221036

0.067711 - 0.105141i

0.067711 + 0.105141i

No root lies outside the unit circle.

VAR satisfies the stability condition.