Türkiye-Rusya İlişkilerinde Değişimin Dinamikleri: 2011-2016

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2011 ve 2016 yılları arasında Türkiye-Rusya ilişkilerinin incelenmesidir. Seçilen dönem iki ülke ilişkilerinde hızlı bir yeniden yakınlaşma sürecine sahne olduğundan, çalışma özellikle 2015 yılında Rus uçağının düşürülmesi sonucunda ortaya çıkan Su-24 siyasi krizinin etkilerine odaklanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışma, Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki ikili ilişkilerin, 2015 krizinin olumsuz etkilerinden yüksek düzeyli siyasi işbirliğine, söz konusu kısa süre içinde nasıl ulaştığı sorusunun yanıtlanmasını hedeflemektedir. Belirlenen araştırma sorusunun incelenmesi amacıyla, uluslararası ilişkilerde bir dış politika analizi sunan neoklasik realizmin teorik çerçevesine başvurulmaktadır. Üç bölüme ayrılan çalışmanın ilk kısmı, ikili ilişkilerde meydana gelen göreceli güç dağılımındaki değişikliklerin politik etkilerini incelemeyi hedeflemektedir. İkinci kısım iç politik faktörlerin Türkiye-Rusya ilişkilerine etkilerine odaklanmaktadır. Son kısımda ise, Su-24 dış politika krizinin çözümü sürecinde devlet liderlerinin etkileri incelenerek çalışmanın analizi tamamlanmaya çalışılacaktır. Çalışma bu kapsamda, Türkiye-Rusya ilişkilerinde kısa süre içinde meydana gelen büyük değişimin; yapısal faktörler, iç politik gelişmeler ve bireysel dinamiklerin birbirini etkiyen ilişkisinin bir sonucu olduğu argümanını desteklemeye çalışacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Türkiye, dış politika, Rusya, Su-24 krizi

Dynamics of Change in Turkey-Russia Relations: 2011-2016

The aim of this study is to analyze Turkey-Russia relations within the period of 2011 and 2016. Since the selected time period in bilateral relations has been characterized by rapid rapprochement after a severe political crisis, the study particularly concentrates on the impact of the Su-24 crisis caused by the downing of a Russian jet in 2015. The paper in this aspect aims to give an answer to the question of how bilateral relations between Turkey and Russia have been recovered from the detrimental effects of the 2015 crisis towards the achievement of high level political cooperation within a short period of time. In order to analyze this research question, the study draws on the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism as a theory of foreign policy analysis in international relations. The study in this respect is divided into three parts. While the first part intends to evaluate how the change of relative distribution of power in bilateral relations have affected the course of political relations between Turkey and Russia, the second part focuses on the impact of domestic factors that stem from internal political developments in both countries. The last part on the other hand attempts to complement this analysis with an overlook on the individual dynamics by analyzing the impact of state leaders for the resolution of the Su-24 foreign policy crisis. In this endeavor, the paper attempts to validate the argument that the dramatic change in Turkey-Russia relations is the outcome of intertwined relations between structural factors, internal political developments and individual dynamics.

Keywords:

Turkey, Foreign Policy, Russia, Su-24 Crisis,

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