Kuznets Hipotezi’nin Geçerliğinin Yumuşak Geçişli Panel Regresyon Modeli ile Analizi

Reel GSYH’deki artış biçiminde tanımlanabilen ekonomik büyüme, bireysel refah artışını tam olarak yansıtamayabilir. Bunun için ekonomik büyümenin yanı sıra gelir dağılımının da dikkate alınması önem arz etmektedir. Bu iki değişkenin gerek gelişim seyrini gerekse birbirleriyle olan ilişkisini inceleyen çalışmalar, iktisat literatüründe geniş yer tutmaktadır. Temel amacı, gelir dağılımı ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koyan Kuznets Hipotezinin seçilmiş ülke grubu için geçerliliğini araştırmak olan bu çalışmada, 20 Avrupa Birliği üye ülkesi için 2005-2019 dönemine ait reel kişi başı GSYH değerleri ve Gini katsayıları kullanılarak yumuşak geçişli panel regresyon (PSTR) modeli tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda elde edilen bulgulara göre, ekonomik büyümenin gelir dağılımı üzerine etkisinin ters-U biçiminde olduğunu ifade eden Kuznets Hipotezi, incelenen dönemde seçili ülke grubu için de geçerlidir. Bu bağlamda incelenen ülke grubu ve dönem için gelir dağılımı eşitsizliğinin, satın alma gücü paritesine göre hesaplanmış reel kişi başı GSYH’nin 11.524 $’lık eşik düzeyine kadar arttığı, söz konusu düzey geçildikten sonra ise azalmaya başladığı tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ekonomik Büyüme, Gelir Dağılımı, Kuznets Hipotezi, Yumuşak Geçişli Panel Regresyon

Analysis of the Validity of Kuznets Hypothesis with Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

Economic growth is defined as the increase in real GDP. However, economic growth may not fully reflect the increase in individual welfare. Therefore, it is important to consider income distribution as well as economic growth. Studies examining both the course of development of these two variables and their relationship with each other have a large place in the economic literature. The aim of this study is to investigate the validity of the Kuznets Hypothesis, which reveals the relationship between income distribution and economic growth, for the selected country group. For this purpose, panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model is estimated by using real per capita GDP values and Gini coefficients of the 20 European Union member states for the period of 2005-2019. According to the findings of the study, Kuznets Hypothesis, which states that the effect of economic growth on income distribution is in inverted-U format, is valid for the selected country group in the period. The threshold income level for the selected country group and the period studied was determined as $ 11.524 (ppp). Income inequality increases up to the threshold income level. Income inequality decreases after the threshold income level is exceeded.

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Income Distribution, Kuznets Hypothesis, Panel Smooth Transition Regression,

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