Selçuk Çağrı ESENER, Burak DARICI, Umutcan MEMO

1988-2017 Dönem Aralığı İçin Türkiye’de Mali Sürüklenme Etkisinin İncelenmesi ve Değerlendirilmesi

Bu çalışmada daha önce sınırlı düzeyde akademik çalışmada ele alınmış bir olgu olan mali sürüklenme fenomeninin Türkiye ekonomisindeki durumu irdelenmiştir. Çeyrek asrı aşkın bir dönemi kapsayan analizlerde gelir vergisi, enflasyon ve büyüme değişkenleri arasındaki etkileşim önce tarihi gerçeklikleriyle ayrı ayrı ele alınmış; ardından birbirleri üzerindeki olası izdüşümleri tablolar vasıtasıyla sorgulanmaya çalışılmıştır. Konu özelinde teori, tarihçe ve yorumun bir bütün halinde değerlendirilmeye gayret edildiği görece kapsamlı bu çalışmada; son 30 yıl içerisinde yaşanan krizler ve bunların maliye ve iktisat politikalarına etkileri de göz ardı edilmemiştir. Bu gelişmeler kimi zaman borç, bankacılık, döviz ve finansman açığı şemsiyesi altında veya ulusal ya da uluslararası krizler başlığı ile isimlendirilip analiz edilse dahi, çalışmamız özelinde yalnızca, ihtiyari (iradi) maliye politikalarının sonraki yıl üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerine odaklanılmıştır. Çalışmada, bir otomatik stabilizatör olarak gelir vergisi tarife müdahalelerinin takip eden yıl verileri üzerinde istenilen etkiyi yaratamadığının en görünür olduğu yıllar 1988, 1994, 1999, 2009 ve 2012 olmuştur. Bu yıllardan özellikle sonuncusunun herhangi bir iktisadi kırılma dönemine isabet etmemesi (kriz ya da doğal afet gibi) dikkat çekicidir. Çalışmanın sonuç kısmında, çeşitli tespitler yanı sıra politika yapıcılara mali sürüklenmeden kaçınmaya yönelik önerilere de yer verilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Mali Sürüklenme, Gelir Vergisi Tarifeleri, Enflasyon, Maliye Politikası

Investigating and Analysing the Effects of Fiscal Drag for the Period of 1988-2017 in Turkey

In this study fiscal drag phenomena, which has limitedly been discussed in academic level, was analyzed for the Turkish economy. In the analyzes including more than a quarter of a century, the interaction between income tax, inflation and growth variables were first reviewed separately with their historical backgrounds; then the possible projections between each other were tried to be questioned by using the tables. In this relatively comprehensive study in which theory, history and interpretation were evaluated as a whole, the crises in the last 30 years and their effects on fiscal and economic policies have not been ignored. Even though these events were sometimes named under the debt, banking, foreign currency and finance deficit, or entitled national or international crises, we focused only on the negative effects of voluntary (voluntary) fiscal policies on the following year. In the study, it was observed that the required effect of the income tax tariff interventions as an automatic stabilizer on the following year data was the least visible in the years 1988, 1994, 1999, 2009 and 2012. It is conspicuous that none of these years, particularly the last one, does not overlap with any economic break (crisis, natural disaster, etc.). In conclusion section of the study, besides our findings, some suggestions to policymakers for avoiding fiscal drag were made.

Keywords:

Fiscal Drag, Income Tax Tariffs, Inflation, Fiscal Policy,

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