Bilal SAVAŞ, Ahmet BEŞKAYA, Famil ŞAMİLOĞLU

TÜRKİYE’DE ULUSLARARASI TURİZMİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİNİN ANALİZİ

Bu makalenin amacı, uluslararası turizmin hacmini ölçmede kullanılan iki farklı gösterge olan uluslararası turist harcamaları ve uluslararası gelen turist sayısı değişkenlerine ait çeyrek yıllık verileri kullanarak turizmin ekonomik büyümenin bir aracı olup olmadığını incelemektir. Çalışmada, ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılarak uluslararası turizmin hacminden turist harcamaları ve gelen turist sayısı değişkenlerinin her ikisinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik bulunmuştur. Bu sonuca göre Türkiye örneği turizmin önderliğinde büyüme hipotezini desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Türkiye, Uluslararası Turizm, Ekonomik Büyüme, Nedensellik

ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

Using quarterly data and two different indicators of the volume of international tourism, namely the international tourist expenditures and the total number of international tourist arrivals, this paper aims to investigate whether tourism has been a vehicle of economic growth in Turkey. We use the ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction model and find evidence of long-run uni-directional causality running from the volume of international tourism both the tourist expenditures and tourist arrivals and real exchange rates to economic growth, but not vice versa. The results indicate that the Turkish case supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis

Keywords:

Turkey, International Tourism, Economic Growth, Causality,

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