The Rise of China and its Interplay with the Russian and Turkish Regimes

How does the rise of China challenge the existing international order? What are the possible outcomes of the interplay between China’s rise and the current trajectory of the Russian and Turkish regimes? Based on a qualitative analysis, I find twomajor dilemmas for the current power dynamics have resulted from China’s challenging behavior in the international system. First, while China promotes steady relationships based on mutual interests facilitated by the rule-based international order, it also carries out actions which feed its aspirations for exploiting the current international institutions. Second, while China underlines the importance of a Westphalian style of sovereignty and non-interference, it also takes interventionist actions in both cyberspace and territorial space. Based on identification of ChinaRussia and China-Turkey interactions through the variations in the most ‘central’ domestic issues of the current governments in Russia and Turkey, I predict four possible outcomes, shedding light on the future policy directions in Russia and Turkey: 1) a prolongation of Putin’s campaign in Ukraine, 2) an acceleration in the process of de-dollarization, 3) lasting Chinese influence on Turkey’s Kurdish issue, and 4) an increase in Turkey’s tendency toward a Chinese-style ‘growth’ model.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

China’s rising influence, international order, domestic politics, China-Russia interactions, ChinaTurkey interactions

The Rise of China and its Interplay with the Russian and Turkish Regimes

Keywords:

China’s rising influence, international order, domestic politics, China-Russia interactions, ChinaTurkey interactions,

PDF

___

Akçay, Nurettin (2021). “Amid Tensions With Turkey, China Is Putting the Kurdish Issue in Play”, The Diplomat, 4 December.
Al Jazeera (2021). “Turkey Extends Syria and Iraq Military Missions by Two Years”, 26 October. Baysal, Başar (2020). “20 Years of Securitization: Strengths, Limitations and A New Dual Framework”, Uluslararası İliskiler, Vol. 17, No 67, p. 3–20.
Blanchette, Jude (2022). “The Worse Things Go for Putin in Ukraine, the More China Will Back Him”, The Washington Post, 24 March, https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/03/24/xi-jinping-putin-china-russia-sanctions/
Borger, Julian (2022). “UN votes to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and calls for withdrawal”, The Guardian, 2 March, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/united-nations-russia-ukraine-vote
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and Alastair Smith (2012). “Domestic Explanations of International Relations”, Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 15, p. 161-181.
Bueno De Mesquita, Bruce and Randolph Siverson (1995). “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 89, No 4, p. 841–55.
Cengiz, Sinem (2021). “Turkey, China Place Economic Ties Ahead of Ideology”, Arab News, 26 March, https://www.arabnews.com/node/1832516
Cheng, Evelyn (2022). “China’s Trade with Russia won’t be Enough to Offset Sanctions, U.S. Says”, CNBC, 25 February, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/chinas-trade-with-russia-wont-offsetsanctions-us-says.html
Chestney, Nina (2022). “Putin Wants ‘Unfriendly’ Countries to Pay for Russian Gas in Roubles”, Reuters, 23 March, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-sellinggas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/
Christensen, Thomas (2016) The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power, New York, W. W. Norton, p. 137-150.
Clinton, Jane (2022). “Why Did Russia Annex Crimea? What Happened When Putin Invaded in 2014 and How Nato Reacted to Annexation”, iNEWS, 29 January, https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russiaannex-crimea-why-putin-invaded-2014-what-happened-nato-annexation-explained-1424682
Combes, Katherine (2011) “Between Revisionism and Status Quo: China in International Regimes”, Polis, Vol. 6, p. 12-17.
Commission on the Theft of American Intellectual Property (2017). Update to the IP Commission Report, Washington, D.C., National Bureau of Asian Research.
Devonshire-Ellis, Chris (2022). “Russia And China To Develop SWIFT Avoiding International Financial Systems”, Russia Briefing, 11 January, https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/russia-andchina-to-develop-swift-avoiding-international-financial-systems.html/
Dove, Jonathan (2016) “The AIIB and the NDB: The End of Multilateralism or a New Beginning?”, The Diplomat, 26 April, https://thediplomat.com/2016/04/the-aiib-and-the-ndb-the-end-of-multilateralism-or-a-new-beginning/
Erdoğan, Recep Tayyip (2017). “Yes for One Nation, One Flag, One Homeland, One State”, Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, 11 February.
Fahim, Kareem (2022). “As Turkey’s Economy Struggles, Erdogan Goes It Alone”, The Washington Post, 21 January, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/21/erdogan-turkey-economy-inflation/
Foot, Rosemary (2020). China, the UN, and Human Protection: Beliefs, Power, Image, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
Foot, Rosemary and Andrew Walter (2013). “Global Norms and Major State Behavior: The Cases of China and the United States”, European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 19, No 2, p. 329-352.
France 24 (2021). “Lira Plunges Again After Erdogan Cites Islam to Defend Rate Cuts”, 20 December, https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211220-lira-plunges-again-after-erdogan-citesislam-to-defend-rate-cuts
Friedberg, Aaron (2011). Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia, New York, W.W. Norton & Co.
Geddes, Barbara (2003). Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics, Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press.
Glaser, Bonnie (2019). “China as a Selective Revisionist Power in the International Order”, Yusof Ishak Institute, No 21.
Goddard, Stacie (2018). “Embedded Revisionism: Networks, Institutions, and Challenges to World Order”, International Organization, Vol. 72, No 4, p. 763–797.
Goemans, Hein (2000). “Fighting for Survival: The Fate of Leaders and the Duration of War”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 44, No 5, p. 555–579.
Hibbeler, Stefan (2022) “Erdogan’s Economic Miscalculations”, IPS Journal, 14 February, https:// www.ips-journal.eu/topics/economy-and-ecology/erdogans-economic-miscalculations-5715/
Ikenberry, John (2011). Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order, Princeton, Princeton University Press.
Jinping, Xi (2017). “Secure a Decisive Victory in Building a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Respects and Strive for the Great Success of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”, 18 October.
Johnston, Alastair (2019). “China and a World of Orders”, International Security, Vol. 44, No 2, p. 9–60. Karakaya, Kerim and Çağan Koç (2021). “Erdogan’s Poll Rating Hits All-Time Low as Economic Woes Grow”, Bloomberg, 24 May, https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/erdogan-s-poll-rating-hits-all-timelow-as-economic-woes-grow-1.1608042
Kent, Ann (2002). “China’s International Socialization: The Role of International Organizations”, Global Governance, Vol. 8, No 3, p. 350-351.
Lake, David, Lisa Martin, and Thomas Risse (2021). Challenges to the Liberal Order: Reflections on International Organization. International Organization, 75(2), 225-257.
Lewis, Paul, Caelainn Barr , Seán Clarke, Antonio Voce, Cath Levett and Pablo Gutiérrez (2019). “Revealed: the Rise and Rise of Populist Rhetoric”, The Guardian, 6 March, https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2019/mar/06/revealed-the-rise-and-rise-of-populist-rhetoric
Lütticke, Marcus (2014) “’Crimea is About the Survival of Putin’s System’”, Deutsche Welle, 14 March, https://www.dw.com/en/crimea-is-about-the-survival-of-putins-system/a-17498124
Madani, Seyedashkan (2022). “Beyond Geopolitics: A Geoeconomic Perspective of China-Iran Belt and Road Initiative Relations”, Uluslararası İliskiler, Vol. 19, No. 74, p. 53-72.
Mearsheimer, John (2019). “Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order”, International Security, Vol. 43, p. 7–50.
Metropoll (2021). Turkey’s Pulse – December 2021, http://www.metropoll.com.tr/
Moravcsik, Andrew (1993). “Integrating International and Domestic Theories of International Bargaining”, Peter B. Evans et al. (eds.), Double-Edged Diplomacy, Berkeley, University of California Press, p. 5-6.
Moravcsik, Andrew (1997). “Taking Preferences Seriously: A Liberal Theory of International Politics”, International Organization, Vol. 51, No 4, p. 518.
Nathan, Andrew (2016). “China’s Rise and International Regimes: Does China Seek to Overthrow Global Norms?”, Robert S. Ross and Jo Inge Bekkevold (eds.), China in the Era of Xi Jinping:
Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges, Washington, D.C., Georgetown University Press, p. 189.
Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (2002). 2002 Report to Congress on China’s WTO Compliance, Washington, D.C.
Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (2015). 2015 Report to Congress on China’s WTO Compliance, Washington, D.C.
Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (2017). 2017 Special 301 Report, Washington, D.C., 2017, p. 28.
Pain, Emil (2016). “The Imperial Syndrome and Its Influence on Russian Nationalism”, Pål Kolstø Helge Blakkisrud (eds.), The New Russian Nationalism: Imperialism, Ethnicity and Authoritarianism 2000–2015, Edinburgh University Press, p. 46–74.
Pinkham, Sophie (2017). “How Annexing Crimea Allowed Putin to Claim He Had Made Russia Great Again”, The Guardian, 22 March, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/22/ annexing-crimea-putin-make-russia-great-again
Pitel, Laura and Tommy Stubbington (2021). “Turkish Lira Falls as Erdogan Vows Victory in ‘Economic War’”, Financial Times, 23 November. Putin, Vladimir (2021). “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”, The Russian President’s Official Website, 12 July.
Risse-Kappen, Thomas (1991). “Public Opinion, Domestic Structure, and Foreign Policy in Liberal Democracies”, World Politics, Vol. 43, No 4, p. 484.
Tamanaha, Brian (2004). On the Rule of Law: History, Politics, Theory, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, p. 3. The U.S. Department of State (2020). Country Reports on Terrorism 2019, Washington, D.C.
Topçu, Özlem and Şebnem Arsu (2022) “The Mayor of Istanbul Could Prove Dangerous to Erdoğan”, Der Spiegel, 11 February
Turak, Natasha (2022). “Erdogan Blames Turkey’s Currency Problems on ‘Foreign Financial Tools’ as Central Bank Reserves Fall”, CNBC, 20 January.
Wang, Yue (2017) “China First: Foreign Tech Firms Must Be Wary Under Xi Jinping’s Rule”, Forbes, 23 October.
Weiss, Jessica and Jeremy Wallace (2021). “Domestic Politics, China’s Rise, and the Future of the Liberal International Order”, International Organization, Vol. 75, No 2, p. 635-664.
Wong, Edward and Julian Barnes (2022). “Russia Asked China for Military and Economic Aid for Ukraine War, U.S. Officials Say”, The New York Times, 13 March.
Yilmaz, Ihsan (2021). “The AKP’s Authoritarian, Islamist Populism: Carving out a New Turkey”, European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). February 5, https://doi.org/10.55271/op0005
Yilmaz, Ihsan (2021). Creating the Desired Citizen: Ideology, State and Islam in Turkey, Cambridge University Press, p. 103–126.