Jeopolitik Ötesi: Çin ve İran’ın Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi İlişkilerine Jeoekonomik Bakış

Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi (BRI), küresel kalkınma tarihindeki en büyük bölgesel kalkınma projesidir. Çinli şirketlerin gelecek yıllarda Asya’da ve başka yerlerde altyapı geliştirmeye 1,2 trilyon dolara kadar yatırım yapacağı tahmin edilmektedir. Ancak, bu girişimin ev sahibi ülkelerde başarılı bir şekilde uygulanmasının önünde coğrafi faktörler, yerel kültür, jeopolitik çekişme, kamu tutumları, kurumsal kapasite ve yönetişim kalitesi gibi birçok zorluk bulunmaktadır. Bu zorluklar, BRI’nin tutarlılığını önemli ölçüde azaltabilir ve etkili bir şekilde uygulanmasını engelleyebilir. Bu çalışma, İran’da BRI projelerinin yürütülmesiyle ilgili riskleri ve zorlukları tespit etmek için analitik bir çerçeve geliştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu doğrultuda, tüm riskler operasyonel, finansal ve jeopolitik olmak üzere üç geniş gruba ayrılır. Sonuçlar, İran’ın genel olarak yabancı yatırımları çekmede birçok iç ve dış zorlukla karşı karşıya olduğunu göstermektedir. “İran, olumsuz iş ortamına rağmen neden Çinli şirketlerden önemli miktarda yatırım alıyor?” sorusu kritiktir. İran-Çin BRI ilişkilerini açıklamada teorik bir çerçeve geliştirmek için jeoekonomik yaklaşım kullanılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, İran’ın jeoekonomik önemi, Çin yatırımlarının ülkeye akışını teşvik eden ana faktördür. BRI, Çin ile İpek Yolu üzerindeki ülkeler arasında belirli bir jeo-uzamsal ortama dayalı olarak işlevsel iş birliğini içermektedir. İran’ın jeo-uzamsal ortamı, işlevsel iş birliğinin ana içeriği olan Çin’in altyapı yatırımlarını teşvik etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi, jeo-uzamsal ortam, risk değerlendirmesi, jeoekonomi

Beyond Geopolitics: A Geoeconomic Perspective of China-Iran Belt and Road Initiative Relations

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the largest regional development project in the history of global development. It is estimated that Chinese companies will invest up to $1.2 trillion in infrastructure development in Asia and elsewhere in the coming years. However, there are many obstacles to the successful implementation of this initiative in the host countries, including geographical factors, local culture, geopolitical contestation, public attitudes, institutional capacity, and governance quality. These challenges can substantially diminish the coherence of the BRI and prevent its effective implementation. This study aims to develop an analytical framework for exploring the risks associated with and challenges of executing BRI projects in Iran. To this end, all risks are categorized into three broad groups: operational, financial, and geopolitical. The results show that Iran generally faces many internal and external challenges in attracting foreign investment. The critical question is: Why is Iran receiving substantial investment from Chinese companies despite its unfavorable business environment? A geoeconomic approach is used to develop a theoretical framework to explain Iran-China BRI relations. In this context, Iran’s geoeconomic significance is the main factor encouraging the flow of Chinese investment into the country. The BRI comprises mostly functional cooperation between China and countries along the Silk Road based on a specific geospatial environment. Iran’s geospatial environment encourages Chinese investments in infrastructure, which is the main content of functional cooperation.

Keywords:

Belt and Road Initiative, geospatial environment, risk assessment, geoeconomic,

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