DİLEK SÜREKÇİ YAMAÇLI

THE RELATIVE SENSITIVITIES ANALYSIS BETWEEN THE ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE AND SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: TURKEY CASE

Bu çalışmanın amacı bazı makroekonomik göstergeler ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkileri,1987- 2010 dönemi Türkiye için incelemektir. Bu amaçla Bağıl Duyarlılık Analizi kullanılmıştır. Bu istatistiksel yöntem değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri, zaman içindeki değişimleri dikkate alarak, kapsamlı biçimde incelemektedir. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, tüketim harcamaları ve bütçe dengesinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde diğer değişkenlere göre bağıl duyarlılığı yüksektir. Öte yandan, dış borç stoku ve cari açıktaki değişimler ile ekonomik büyüme arasında, 1991, 1994, 2001 ve 2008-2008 dönemleri dışında, bağıl duyarlılık zayıftır. Bu kapsamda, ekonomik büyüme hızının istikrar kazanmasında özellikle tüketim harcamaları ve bütçe dengesine kontrol edilmelidir.

EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ORANI VE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DE-ĞİŞKENLER ARASINDA BAĞIL DUYARLILIK ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

The aim of this study is the investigation of the relations between the selected macroeconomic variables and the economic growth rate for the period of 1987-2010 in Turkey. Relative Sensitivities Analyasis (RSA) was used to accomplish this aim. This statistical method is used for examining the relationships between variables in the over time. According to the results of study, consumption budget balance has higher relative sensitivity on the economic growth rate than the other variables. On the other hand, changes in the stock of external debt and current account deficit have no effect on the economic growth rate, expect periods of 1991, 1994, 2001 and 2008-2009. In this context, for the stabilization of the economic growth rate, especially consumption expenditure and budget deficit should be considered.

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