Muhammed V. KAYA, İbrahim BOZKURT, RIFAT KARAKUŞ, Sezer ÖKSÜZ

WORLD IN 2023: ESTIMATION BY POPULATION, CAPITAL MARKETS AND ECONOMIC SIZE

Bu çalışma iki amaca odaklanmaktadır.Çalışmanın ilk amacı; nüfusta, yoksul nüfusta ve sermaye piyasalarının gelişiminde meydana gelen değişim ile GSYİHde meydana gelen değişim arasındaki ilişkiyi belirlemektir. Çalışmanın ikinci amacı ise belirlenen ilişkileri kullanarak ülkelerin 2023 yılındaki durumunu tahmin etmektir. İlgili değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri belirlemek için 135 ülkenin 1980 ile 2010 yılları arasındaki verileri analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, nüfustaki değişim ile sermaye piyasasındaki gelişimin GSYİH üzerinde istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca, nüfustaki artış ile yoksulluk arasında da istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Bunun yanında; E7 ülkelerinde beklenen gelişimin, G7 ülkelerindeki beklenen gelişimden daha fazla olduğu ortaya konulmuştur.

2023DE DÜNYA: NÜFUS, SERMAYE PİYASALARI ve EKONOMİK BÜYÜKLÜK İLE TAHMİN EDİLMESİ

This study focuses on two aims. First aim of the study is to determine the relationship between change in population, poor population and capital markets development with change in GDP. The second aim is to forecast the position of countries in 2023 by using determined relations. To determine the relationships, data of 135 countries between 1980 and 2010 were analyzed. Analysis results revealed that population changes and capital market development have a statistically significant effect on GDP. In addition, there is a statistically significant relationship between population growth and poverty. In addition, it is stated that development of E7 countries will become higher than the development of G7 countries.

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