Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi’nin Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı’nın gelir ve tüketimi üzerindeki etkisi

Bu çalışmada, Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı’na üye ülkelerin kişi başına düşen gelir ve tüketimlerinin kendi aralarında ve Çin ile olan etkileşimlerinin ve yayılma etkilerinin BRI çerçevesine dayalı olarak araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla, çalışmanın analiz kısmı Çin dahil olmak üzere 6 ülkenin 1990-2019 arasındaki dönemi kapsayan kişi başına düşen gelir ve tüketimi içeren bir veri seti üzerinde kurgulanmaktadır. Zamanla değişen vektör otoregresif (TVP-VAR) dinamik bağlantılılık yaklaşımından yararlanılmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları: (a) 2010 öncesi dönemde üye ülkelerin hem tüketim hem de gelir değişkenlerinde genel olarak daha dalgalı bir etkileşim varken, sonraki dönemde daha düzenli bir ilişki gözlemlenmektedir (b) Çin’in analiz grubuna dahil edilmesiyle birlikte ise, neredeyse tüm bağlantılılık seviyelerinde iyileşmeler olduğu görülmektedir. Bu makalenin literatüre katkısı; BRI girişiminin Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı'na üye ülkelerin GSYİH ve tüketim harcamaları üzerindeki etkisini inceleyen ilk çalışma olmasıdır. Daha önceki bulgular çoğunlukla tüm BRI ülkelerinin çalışmalarına dayanmakta iken sadece belirli bir ülke grubuna odaklanan böyle bir çalışma ilk defa yapılmıştır. Ayrıca özgün bir ampirik yaklaşım kullanılarak ülkelerarası gelir ve tüketim ilişkisi incelenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi, Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı, yayılma etkileri, gelir, tüketim

The Belt and Road Initiative’s impact on income and consumption within the Organization of Turkic States

This study aims to investigate the interactions of per capita income and consumption of the Organization of Turkic States with each other and China based on the BRI framework. To this end, we construct our analysis on a data set that includes per capita of GDP and consumption across 6 countries (including China) covering the period 1990-2019. We utilize a time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) dynamic connectedness. The analysis results: (i) while there is generally a more fluctuating relationship in both consumption and income variables of the countries pre-2010 period, there is a more regular relationship in the following period (ii) when China is included into the group, improvements are observed at almost all connectedness levels. The contribution of this article is being the first study to examine the impact of the BRI initiative on GDP and consumption expenditures in the Turkish States. While previous findings have mostly relied on studies from all BRI countries, this study has focused on a specific group of countries. In addition, the relationship between income and consumption between countries was examined using a unique empirical approach.

Keywords:

Belt and Road initiative, Organization of Turkic States, spillover effects, income, consumption,

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