DOĞU ASYA’DA İHRACATA DAYALI BÜYÜME VE İÇ TALEP ÇEKİŞLİ BÜYÜME HİPOTEZLERİNİN AMPİRİK ANALİZİ
Çalışmada Doğu Asya ülkelerinde ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezi (ELG) ve iç talep çekişli büyüme hipotezi (DLG) 1983-2015 dönemi için dinamik panel veri analiz yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. ELG hipotezi ekonomik kriz sonrası zamanla Asya’da popülerliğini yitirmiş ve politika yapıcılar yabancı talebe bağımlı olmayan başka bir büyüme hipotezini (DLG) çözüm önerisi olarak uygulamaya koymuşlardır. İkinci nesil birim kök, eş-bütünleşme ve nedensellik testlerinin kullanıldığı ekonometrik modelde uzun dönem katsayıları Pesaran (2006) tarafından geliştirilen CCE modeli ile her bir ülke için ayrı ayrı hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen uygulama sonuçlarına göre; Hong Kong ve Singapur’da ihracat dayalı büyüme hipotezi kabul edilirken Güney Kore ile Makao’da iç talep çekişli büyüme hipotezi dominanttır. Japonya’da net ihracat ve iç talep, ekonomik büyümeye birlikte katkı yapmaktadır. Bu nedenle Japonya’nın ekonomik büyüme katsayısı diğerlerinden daha büyüktür. Sürdürülebilir büyümenin anahtarı ELG ve DLG hipotezlerini birlikte içeren bir politika uygulamaktan geçmektedir.
EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF EXPORT-LED GROWTH AND DOMESTIC DEMAND-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESES IN EAST ASIA
The purpose of this study to compare export-led growth (ELG) and domestic demand-led growth (DLG) hypotheses in East Asia during 1983-2015 with dynamic panel data analysis. Export-led growth strategy lost in time its fame in Asia after the economic crisis and policy makers put in practice some solution packages and tried to move on another growth strategy (DLG) which does not depend only foreign demand. The second generation unit root, co-integration and causality tests have been used at the empirical part and long term coefficients calculated with CCE model (Pesaran, 2006) individually. According to estimated long term coefficients for each country; in Hong Kong and Singapore export-led growth hypothesis is dominant but in Macau and South Korea domestic demand led growth is strictly speaking. Net export and domestic demand contributes to economic growth together in Japan and economic growth coefficient of Japan is bigger than the others. The key of the sustainable growth is to have a good combination of ELG and DLG hypotheses.
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- ISSN: 1307-9832
- Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
- Başlangıç: 2008
- Yayıncı: Kenan ÇELİK
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