AVRUPA’NIN YÜKSELEN EKONOMİLERİNDE BÜTÇE AÇIĞININ ENFLASYON ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: PANEL ARDL YAKLAŞIMI

Bütçe açığı ile enflasyon arasındaki karşılıklı ilişki, kamu maliyesi literatüründe yüksek öneme haiz olan tar-tışmalı konu başlıklarından bir tanesidir. İlgili çerçevede, makroekonomik göstergelerden bir tanesi olan enf-lasyonu düşük seviyelerde tutmak ise zaman ve coğrafyadan bağımsız olarak tüm hükümetlerin öncelikli hedeflerinden olmasından ötürü; bütçe açıklarının enflasyon üzerindeki etkileri de önem kazanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Avrupa’nın yükselen ekonomilerinden Bulgaristan, Hırvatistan, Çekya, Macaristan, Polonya, Romanya, Slovakya ve Slovenya’da bütçe açıklarının enflasyon üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönem etkileri 1999-2019 dönemi verileri ile panel ARDL yöntemi ile araştırılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı bütçe açıklarının enflasyon üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönem etkilerini ortaya koymaktır. Panel ARDL yöntemi ile ya-pılan tahmin sonuçlarına göre çalışmanın örneklemini oluşturan ülkelerde bütçe açıkları kısa dönemde azal-tıcı etkide bulunurken, uzun dönemde ise artırıcı niteliktedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Bütçe açığı, enflasyon, yükselen ekonomiler, panel ARDL

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