Türkiye’nin Ekonomi Politikasının Üçlü Açmaz Bağlamında İncelenmesi

Türkiye’de 1970-2015 dönemi yürütülen ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon, kamu harcaması ve ticari açıklığa yönelik ekonomi politikalarının üçlü açmaz hipoteziyle incelenmesi çalışmanın amacını oluşturmaktadır. Ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon, kamu harcaması ve ticari açıklığa yönelik ekonomi politikalarının incelenmesi için Pesaran, Smith ve Shin (2001) tarafından önerilen ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) modeli kullanılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre, ekonomik büyüme için döviz kurundaki istikrar ve para politikası bağımsızlığı (Sermaye Hareketlerinin Kontrolü) ya da serbest sermaye harekeleri ve para politikası bağımsızlığı (Esnek Döviz Kuru) politikaları geçerlidir. Diğer yandan, ticari açıklık için para kurulu ve esnek döviz kuru politikaları geçerlidir. Enflasyon ve kamu harcaması için istatistiki olarak anlamlı bulgular elde edilememiştir.

Investigating Economic Policy of Turkey in the Context of Impossible Trinity

The purpose of the study economic policy on economic growth, inflation, public spending, and trade openness examining the context of “monetary dilemma” for the period of 1970-2015. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model proposed by Pesaran, Smith, and Shin (2001) was used to examine the economic policies for economic growth, inflation, public spending, and trade openness. As a result of the findings, exchange rate stability and independence monetary policy (controlled financial openness) or financial openness and independence monetary policy (flexible exchange rate)

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