Türkiye’den OECD Ülkelerine Nitelikli İşgücü Göçü: Bir Panel Veri Analizi
Türkiye, sahip olduğu iktisadi ve demografik
dinamikleri paralelinde uluslararası göç trendlerinin oldukça zengin bir
şekilde gözlemlenebileceği bir ülkedir. Yurtdışına göç eden insan sayısı
geçtiğimiz on yıllık dönemlerde sürekli artış eğiliminde olmuştur. Bu eğilim
kadın ve nitelikli gruplarda çok daha da belirgin olarak gözlenmiştir. Öte
yandan, mikro verilerin yetersizliği ülkenin göç dinamiklerinin detaylı bir
şekilde incelenmesine engel olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı söz konusu boşluğu
doldurmak adına, Türkiye’den göç eden bireyler üzerinden göç ve insan sermayesi
arasındaki ilişkiyi irdelemektir. Bu doğrultuda, ilk olarak IAB’nin Brain Drain
Veritabanı kullanılarak, 1980-2010 yılları arasında Türkiye’den 20 OECD
ülkesine yönelik gerçekleşen göçün boyut ve niteliği, cinsiyet ve eğitim
seviyesi ayrımlarında analiz edilmektedir. Bu toplamcı analizi takiben,
gözlemlenen göç trendlerinin altında yatan dinamikler rassal etkili panel veri
modeli ile incelenmektedir. Tahmin sonuçları, cinsiyet, zaman ve eğitim
değişkenlerinin uluslararası işgücü hareketliliği ile yakından ilişkili
olduğuna, ve Türkiye çıkışlı göçmenlerin eğitim seviyesi dağılımındaki belirgin
sola çarpıklığın zaman içerisinde kaybolduğuna işaret etmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler:
Uluslararası göç, Göçmen, Nitelik, Türkiye, Rassal Etkiler
An Outline of Skilled Emigration from Turkey to OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis
Turkey
provides rich evidence for the current international migration trends given its
economic and demographic dynamics. The number of people moving overseas to
settle permanently has been following an increasing trend in the recent
decades, particularly remarkable for skilled and female groups. However, given
the micro-level data limitations the migration outlook of Turkey is still quite
bleak. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap and analyze the relationship
between migration and human capital in the context of Turkish immigrants.
First, aggregate trends of the Turkish emigrants in the 20 OECD destination
countries by gender and educational level over the 1980-2010 period are
examined using the IAB Brain Drain dataset. Next, a random effects panel
estimation is applied to scrutinize the underlying dynamics of observed
migration patterns adopting economic size, unemployment, demographic profile, urbanization
and proximity as explanatory variables. The results reveal that gender, time
and education are found as significantly related to international mobility
trends, and the substantially left-skewedness of
the distribution of Turkish emigrants along educational level is gradually
fading away over time.
Keywords:
International migration, Emigrants, Skill, Turkey, Random effects,
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- ISSN: 2149-6838
- Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
- Başlangıç: 2015
- Yayıncı: Seyfettin Artan
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