Aytaç AKÇAY, Berrin ŞENTÜRK, Cengiz YALÇIN

Analysis of risk factors in the management of foot-and-mouth disease in Turkey

The aim of this study was to perform a risk analysis of the management of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemics in Turkey. The relationship between disease outbreaks and risk was analyzed by evaluating 11 disease risk factors related to the input, processing, production, movement, and marketing infrastructure aspects of the animal production chain. A progressive (hierarchical) clustering analysis method was employed to group the quantitative data obtained for each of the risk variables. The total risk scores were grouped in a dendrogram. There was a strong positive relationship (72%) between risk variables and total outbreak numbers (P < 0.01). Results showed the districts in which the FMD risk is high and indicate where the appropriate measures should be taken to eradicate or at least minimize outbreaks.

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