SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology and control, different scenarios for Turkey
SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology and control, different scenarios for Turkey
Background/aim: Coronavirus Infectious Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is now a pandemic spreading in most countries including Turkey.Materials and methods: The current knowledge of COVID-19 and the virus causing it, SARS-CoV-2, was reviewed. The epidemiologyand control in different countries was compared and the differences discussed.Results: The population attack rates and case fatality rates vary from country to country with Lombardy in northern Italy reportingan attack rate in the general population of 0.37% compared to 0.004% in Hong Kong. The differences are caused by different testingstrategies and reporting systems.Conclusion: Turkey is early in the outbreak. Different control strategies are available with South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore beingmodels to follow.
___
- 1. World Health Organization (2020). WHO characterizes
COVID-19 as a pandemic [online] Website https://www.who.
int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-asthey-
happen [accessed 29 March 2020].
- 2. World Health Organization (2020). Coronavirus disease 2019
(COVID-19), situation report 67 [online]. Website https://
www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situationreports/
20200327-sitrep-67-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=b65f68eb_4
[accessed 29 March 2020].
- 3. Ferguson NM, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Imai N, Ainslie K et
al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce
COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand [online]. Imperial
College COVID-19 Response Team 16 March 2020. Website
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/
sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPImodelling-
16-03-2020.pdf [accessed 17 March 2020].
- 4. World Health Organization (2003). Epidemic curves-severe
acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) [online]. Website https://
www.who.int/csr/sars/epicurve/epiindex/en/index1.html
[accessed 26 March 2020].
- 5. World Health Organization Department of Communicable
Disease Surveillance and Response WHO/CDS/CSR/
GAR/2003.11 (2003). Consensus document on the epidemiology
of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) [online]. Website
https://www.who.int/csr/sars/WHOconsensus.pdf ?ua=1
[accessed 29 March 2020].
- 6. Munster VJ, Koopmans M, Van Doremalen N, Van Riel D, De
Wit E. A novel coronavirus emerging in China-key questions for
impact assessment. New England Journal of Medicine 2020; 382
(8): 692-694. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp2000929
- 7. World Health Organization (2020). Report of the WHOChina
joint mission on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
[online]. Website https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/
coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-finalreport.
pdf [accessed 29 March 2020].
- 8. Yu P, Zhu J, Zhang Z, Han Y, Huang L. A familial cluster of
infection associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating
potential person-to-person transmission during the incubation
period. The Journal of Infectious Diseases 2020; pii: jiaa077.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa077. [Epub ahead of print].
- 9. Kelvin AA, Halperin S. COVID-19 in children: the link in
the transmission chain. Lancet Infectious Diseases 2020; pii:
S1473-3099(20)30236-X. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30236-X
- 10. Qiu H, Wu J, Hong L, Luo Y, Song Q et al. Clinical and
epidemiological features of 36 children with coronavirus disease
2019 (COVID-19) in Zhejiang, China: an observational cohort
study. The Lancet 2020. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30198-5
- 11. Italian Ministry of Health Ministro della Salute Istituto
Superiore di Sanita. Covid-19 Bollettino [online]. Website
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1_1_1.jsp?lingua=
italiano&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=4240 [accessed
27 March 2020] (in Italian).
- 12. Wang FS, Zhang C. What to do next to control the 2019-
nCoV epidemic? The Lancet 2020; 395 (10222): 391-393. doi:
10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30300-7
- 13. To KKW, Tsang OTY, Leung WS, Tam AR, Wu TC et al.
Temporal profiles of viral load in posterior oropharyngeal
saliva samples and serum antibody responses during infection
by SARS-CoV-2: an observational cohort study. The Lancet
Infectious Diseases 2020; pii: S1473-3099(20)30196-1. doi:
10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30196-1 [Epub ahead of print].
- 14. Cheng PKC, Wong DA, Tong LKL, Ip SM, Lo ACT et al. Viral
shedding patterns of coronavirus in patients with probable
severe acute respiratory syndrome. The Lancet 2004 ; 363
(9422): 1699-1700. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(04)16255-7
- 15. Pan Y, Zhang D, Yang P, Poon LLM, Wang Q et al. Viral load
of SARS-CoV-2 in clinical samples. The Lancet Infectious
Diseases 2020; pii: S1473-3099(20)30113-4. doi: 10.1016/
S1473-3099(20)30113-4 [Epub ahead of print].
- 16. Liu Y, Yan LM, Wan L, Xiang TX, Le A et al. Viral dynamics
in mild and severe cases of COVID-19. The Lancet Infectious
Diseases 2020; pii: S1473-3099(20)30232-2. doi: 10.1016/S1473-
3099(20)30232-2 [Epub ahead of print].
- 17. Walls AC, Park YJ, Tortorici MA, Wall A, McGuire AT et al.
Structure, Function, and Antigenicity of the SARS-CoV-2
Spike Glycoprotein. Cell 2020; pii: S0092-8674(20)30262-2. doi:
10.1016/j.cell.2020.02.058 [Epub ahead of print].
- 18. Backer JA, Klinkenberg D, Wallinga J. The incubation period of
2019-nCoV infections among travellers from Wuhan, China.
MedRxiv 2020. doi: dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018986
- 19. Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q, Jones FK, Zheng Q et al. The
incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from
publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application.
Annals of Internal Medicine 2020. doi: 10.7326/M20-0504
- 20. Woelfel R, Corman VM, Guggemos W, Seilmaier M, Zange
Set al. Clinical presentation and virological assessment of
hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in a travelassociated
transmission cluster. MedRxiv 2020. doi: https://doi.
org/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502
- 21. Olson DR, Simonsen L, Edelson PJ, Morse SS. Epidemiological
evidence of an early wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New
York City. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA
2005; 102 (31): 11059-11063. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0408290102
- 22. Andreasen V, Viboud C, Simonsen L. Epidemiologic
characterization of the 1918 influenza pandemic summer wave
in Copenhagen: implications for pandemic control strategies.
Journal of Infectious Diseases 2008; 197 (2): 270-278. doi:
10.1086/524065
- 23. Bi Q, Wu Y, Mei S, Ye C, Zou Z et al. Epidemiology and
transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: analysis of 391
cases and 1,286 of their close contacts. MedRxiv 2020. doi: 10.11
01/2020.03.03.20028423
- 24. Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention (2020).
The updates of the COVID-19 in the Republic of Korea
[online]. Website https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.
es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030 [accessed 28 March 2020].
- 25. Sanche S , Lin YT, Xu C, Romero-Severson E, Hengartner NW et
al. The novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is highly contagious and
more infectious than initially estimated. MedRxiv 2020. https://
doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154
- 26. Lipsitch M, Cohen T, Cooper B, Robins JM, Ma S et al.
Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory
syndrome. Science 2003; 300 (5627): 1966-1970. doi: 10.1126/
science.1086616
- 27. World Health Organization (2020). WHO Director-General’s
opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 [online].
Website https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-directorgeneral-
s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19-
--16-march-2020 [accessed 28 March 2020].
- 28. Balcan D, Hu H, Goncalves B, Ramasco JJ, Colizza V et al.
Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of thenew
influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on
human mobility. BioMedicine Central Medicine 2009; 7: 45. doi:
10.1186/1741-7015-7-45
- 29. Bell DM. World Health Organization Working Group on
prevention of international and community transmission of
SARS. Public Health Interventions and SARS Spread, 2003.
Emerging Infectious Diseases 2004; 10 (11): 1900-1906. doi:
10.3201/eid1011.040729
- 30. Killerby ME, Biggs HM, Midgley CM, Gerber SI, Watson JT.
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus transmission.
Emerging Infectious Diseases 2020; 26 (2): 191-198. doi:
10.3201/eid2602.190697
- 31. China CDC and the The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia
Emergency Response Epidemiology Team. The Epidemiological
Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 NovelCoronavirus
Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020 [online]. China CDC
Weekly 2(8): 113-22. Website http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/
article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 [accessed
29 March 2020].
- 32. Viboud C, Simonsen L, Fuentes R, Flores J, Miller MA et al.
Global mortality impact of the 1957-1959 influenza pandemic.
Journal of Infectious Diseases 2016; 213 (5): 738-745. doi:
10.1093/infdis/jiv534
- 33. Gubbels S, A Perner, P Valentiner-Branth, K Molbak. National
surveillance of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) infectionrelated
admissions to intensive care units during the 2009-10
winter peak in Denmark: two complementary approaches.
Euro Surveillance 2010; 15 (49): pii: 19743. doi: 10.2807/
ese.15.49.19743-en
- 34. Petersen E, Keld DB, Ellermann-Eriksen S, Gubbels S, Ilkjær
S et al. Failure of combination oral oseltamivir and inhaled
zanamivir antiviral treatment in ventilator- and ECMO-treated
critically ill patients with pandemic influenza A (H1N1)v.
Scandinavian Journal of Infectious Diseases 2011; 43 (6-7):
495-503. doi: 10.3109/00365548.2011.556144
- 35. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Health [2020]. . Türkiye’deki
güncel durum [online]. Website https://covid19.saglik.gov.tr/
[accessed 29 March 2020].
- 36. Lee VJ, Chiew CJ, Khong WX. Interrupting transmission of
COVID-19: lessons from containment efforts in Singapore.
Journal of Travel Medicine 2020; pii: taaa039. doi: 10.1093/jtm/
taaa039 [Epub ahead of print].
- 37. Ng Y, Li Z, Chua YX, Chaw WL, Zhao Z et al. Evaluation of the
Effectiveness of Surveillance and Containment Measures for
the First 100 Patients with COVID-19 in Singapore — January
2–February 29, 2020. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
2020; 69 (11): 307-311. doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6911e1
- 38. Hatchett RJ, Mecher CE, Lipsitch M. Public health interventions
and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 2007; 104
(18): 75. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0610941104 82-7587
- 39. Turkish Statistical Institute (2020). Website http://tuik.gov.tr/
HbGetirHTML.do?id=33705 [accessed 30 March 2020].