Tsunami hazard assessment in İstanbul

İstanbul'un Marmara kıyıları tarih boyunca özellikle Marmara depremlerine bağlı olarak gelişen sualtı heyelanlarının yarattığı tsunami dalgalarının etkisinde kalmıştır. Son 1999 depreminin İzmit Körfezinde yarattığı tsunaminin ardından yapılan daha ayrıntılı araştırmalar bu şekilde oluşan dalgaların kıyılara birkaç dakika içinde ulaşabileceğini ve önemli maddi hasarlara neden olabileceğini göstermiştir. Bu modeller baz alınarak ve uluslararası kabul gören ve kıyı yerleşimine göre değişen metodolojiler kullanılarak, İstanbul güney kıyıları boyunca tsunami basmasının kıyılardaki dağılımının ilk jenerasyon haritaları üretilmiştir. Bu haritalar kıyı alanları üzerindeki olası tsunami zararlarının azaltılmasında, bu alanlardaki geleceğe yönelik endüstriyel planlamalarda ve tahliye planlarının hazırlanmasında kullanılabilir.

İstanbul' da tsunami tehlikesinin değerlendirmesi

Historical tsunami events have impacted the Istanbul coasts along the Sea of Marmara. Offshore seismic sources may trigger these tsunamis directly or through coseismic underwater failure. The 1999 İzmit Bay tsunami led to more comprehensive analyses of these events which are generally caused by underwater failures close to the target coastline. Waves so generated can arrive at nearby coastlines in minutes, causing extensive damage and loss of life. Here this paper propose, on the basis of tsunami models in the Sea of Marmara and methodology used internationally, first generation tsunami inundation maps for the areas along the southern coast of Istanbul. Such maps for selected areas help to understand the possible effects on those regions and should only be used for evacuation planning and reducing possible hazard.

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