PREDICTINGTHE ENERGY PRODUCTIONOF A ROOFTOP PV PLANT BY USING DIFFERENTIAL EVOLUTION ALGORITHM

In this study, a simple and plainclosed-form mathematical expressionhas been obtainedto preciselyestimatethe monthly production of a rooftop photovoltaic(PV)plant installed in Adana, Turkey. The proposed modelis developed by utilizingthe Differential Evolution (DE) optimization algorithm based onthe PVplant’s5-year(August 2013 –July 2018)real measurement data. The PV plant is a grid-connected rooftop solar PV system located at Kıvanç Textile in Adana, Turkey.The PV systemis equipped with anonline monitoring system that providesreal time data. The study shows the actual energy production is730 MWh/yearon average for 5 years. In order to testthe robustness and precisionof the present model, it hasbeen compared with the long-term real measurementdataof the PV system.The key benefitof themodel is givinga convincingpredictionof the future productionof the PV panelin a simple way.It also does not require any further information other than time. Average percentage error was reached as small as 7.4% for 5-year data

PDF

___

Ak. C., Yildiz A. (2018) “A novel closed-form expression obtained by using differential evolution algorithm to calculate pull-in voltage of mems cantilever.” Journal of microelectromechanical systems, Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 392- 397.

Almorox, J. (2011). ‘‘Estimating global solar radiation from common meteorological data in Aranjuez, Spain.’’ Turkish Journal of Physics, Vol. 35, pp. 53-64.

Arslan, G., Bayhan, B. (2016). “Solar energy potential in Mersin and a Simple model to predict daily solar radiation.” Mugla Journal of Science and Technology, Special Issue, pp. 1-4.

Bayhan B., Arslan G. (2018) “Applicability of solar and wind energy technologies for a non-residential building.” Turkish Journal of Engineering, Vol. 2, No.1, pp. 27-34.

Bulut, H., Buyukalaca. O. (2007). “Simple model for the generation of daily global solar-radiation data in Turkey.” Applied Energy, Vol. 85, No. 5, pp. 477-491.

Ecevit A., Akinoglu B. G., Aksoy B. (2002) “Generation of a typical meteorological year using sunshine-duration data.” Energy, Vol. 27, No: 10, pp. 947-954.

Hepbaslı A., Ulgen K. (2002) “Prediction of solarradiation parameters through the clearness index for Izmir, Turkey.” Energy Source, Vol. 24, No. 8, pp. 773-785.

Kaygusuz K. (1999) “The comparison of measured and calculated solar radiations in Trabzon, Turkey.” Energy Source, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 347-353.

Kaygusuz K., Ayhan T. (1999) “Analysis of solar radiation data for Trabzon, Turkey.” Energy Convers Manage, Vol. 40, No. 5, pp. 545-556.

Knight K. M., Klein S. A., Duffie J. A. (1991) “A methodology for the synthesis of hourly weather data.” Sol Energy, Vol. 46, No. 2, pp.109-120.

Ogulata R. T., Ogulata S. N. (2002) “Solar radiation on Adana, Turkey.” Appl Energy, Vol. 71, No. 4, pp. 351- 358.

Storn R., Price K. (1997) “Differential evolution-A simple and efficient heuristic for global optimization over continuous spaces.” J. Global Optim., Vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 341-359.

Togrul I.T., Onat E. (1999) “A study for estimating solar radiation in Elazıg using geographical and meteorological data.” Energy Convers Manage, Vol. 40, No.14, pp. 1577-1584.

Togrul I. T., Onat E. (2002) “Global solar-radiation over Turkey: comparison of predicted and measured data.” Renew Energy, Vol.25, No. 1, pp. 55-67.

Ulgen K., Hepbaslı A. (2002) “Comparison of solarradiation correlations for _Izmir, Turkey.” Int J Energy Res, Vol. 26, No. 5, pp. 413-430.