An avalanche hazard model for Bitlis Province, Turkey, using GIS based multicriteria decision analysis
Most avalanche fatalities in Turkey have occurred in Bitlis Province. The scope of this research was to identify the avalanche hazard area of that province, using geographical information system (GIS) based multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and to evaluate it by means of sensitivity and accuracy analysis. The model consists of 5 GIS layers: elevation, slope, aspect, vegetation density, and land use. The hazard model is obtained by using a comparison matrix where all identified criteria of GIS layers are compared against each other. The acceptability of the model was determined using historical events. All of these events plotted over the model showed that there is a remarkable coincidence with high hazard areas. Approximately 90% of avalanche events have occurred in the high and moderately high areas. Settlement areas cover approximately 39,741 ha of study area and just 41 settlement areas (villages and towns) have ideal topographic characteristics to prevent avalanche hazard, while 82% of them are not suitable. The avalanche hazard model shows that the southeast and southwest parts of Bitlis (Center), Tatvan, and Hizan counties have the highest avalanche hazard. Therefore, site planning, construction of supporting structures, and control programs should be effectively integrated with avalanche pathways in potential areas.
An avalanche hazard model for Bitlis Province, Turkey, using GIS based multicriteria decision analysis
Most avalanche fatalities in Turkey have occurred in Bitlis Province. The scope of this research was to identify the avalanche hazard area of that province, using geographical information system (GIS) based multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and to evaluate it by means of sensitivity and accuracy analysis. The model consists of 5 GIS layers: elevation, slope, aspect, vegetation density, and land use. The hazard model is obtained by using a comparison matrix where all identified criteria of GIS layers are compared against each other. The acceptability of the model was determined using historical events. All of these events plotted over the model showed that there is a remarkable coincidence with high hazard areas. Approximately 90% of avalanche events have occurred in the high and moderately high areas. Settlement areas cover approximately 39,741 ha of study area and just 41 settlement areas (villages and towns) have ideal topographic characteristics to prevent avalanche hazard, while 82% of them are not suitable. The avalanche hazard model shows that the southeast and southwest parts of Bitlis (Center), Tatvan, and Hizan counties have the highest avalanche hazard. Therefore, site planning, construction of supporting structures, and control programs should be effectively integrated with avalanche pathways in potential areas.
___
- AFAD-Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (2008). Spatial and statistical distribution of disasters in Turkey, Inventory, General Directorate of Natural Disasters, Ankara-Turkey. AFAD-Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Disaster & Emergency Management Presidency (2010). Avalanche records of Bitlis province. Ministry of public works, Bitlis-Turkey, http://www. afad.gov.tr/TR/Index.aspx.
- Benedikt J (2002). Risk assessment of avalanches. A fuzzy GIS application. Proceedings of 5th international FLINS conference, pp. 395–402.
- CAGEM (2010). Reports of avalanche. General Directorate of Natural Disasters, http://cagem.bayindirlik.gov.tr/Ana_Sayfatr.htm, 25/10/2010.
- Chen Y, Yu J, Shabaz K, Xevi E (2009). A GIS-Based Sensitivity Analysis of Multi-Criteria Weights. 18th World IMACS/ MODSIM Congress, pp. 3137–3143.
- Chen Y, Yu J, Khan S (2010). Spatial sensitivity analysis of multicriteria weights in GIS based land suitability evaluation. Env Mod Soft 25: 1582–1591.
- Ciolli M., Tabarelli S, Zatelli P (1998). 3D Spatial Data Integration for Avalanche Risk Management. In: Fritsch D, Englich M, Sester M, editors. ISPRS Commission IV Symposium on GIS - Between Visions and Applications, pp. 121–127. Dai FC, Lee CF, Zhang XH (2001). GIS-based geo-environmental evaluation for urban land-use planning: a case study. Eng Geol 61: 257–271.
- Daniel C (1958). On varying one factor at a time. Biometrics 14: 430–431.
- Fernandez DS, Lutz MA (2010). Urban flood hazard zoning in Tucumán Province, Argentina, using GIS and multicriteria decision analysis. Eng Geol 111: 90–98.
- Fredston J, Fesler D, Tremper B (1994). The human factor – Lessons for avalanche education. Proc. Int Snow Science Workshop, pp. 473–487.
- Gamper C, Thöni M, Weck-Hannemann H (2006). A conceptual approach to the use of cost benefit and multi criteria analysis in natural hazard management. Nat Hazards and Earth Sys Sci 6: 293–302.
- Gürer İ (1998). International Cooperation for Solving the Avalanche Problem in Turkey. Nat Hazards 18: 77–85.
- Höller P (2007). Avalanche hazards and mitigation in Austria: A review. Nat Hazards 43: 81–101.