Assessing impacts of climate change on Campanula yaltirikii H.Duman (Campanulaceae), a critically endangered endemic species in Turkey

Ecological niche models (ENMs) provide information to assess the effects of environmental and climatic conditions onspecies distribution. The purpose of this study was to predict the impact of climate change on a critically endangered species, Campanulayaltirikii H.Duman. It is a local endemic chasmophyte from Mt Çığlıkara (Antalya, Turkey), restricted to cracks in calcareous rocks andthreatened by goat overgrazing. Current and future ENMs of C. yaltirikii were predicted with a maximum entropy (Maxent) algorithm.The MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) climate change scenario for the year 2070 was used for projecting thefuture ENM of the species. A total of 38 GPS records of the species’ localities were obtained from fieldwork. Fifteen environmentalvariables, including edaphic and topographic factors, and 19 climatic variables were used as predictors. The jackknife evaluation resultsindicated that geological formation, soil groups, and elevation are the main factors influencing C. yaltirikii’s distribution for current andfuture models. To conclude, climate change will shift some parts of the suitable habitats of C. yaltirikii. While there will be an expansionto higher altitudes and further north, there also will be habitat loss in the northeast of the current suitable habitat.

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