Turizm Talebinin Panel Çekim Modeli İle Analizi

Geçmişi 1950’lere dayanan çekim modelleri önceleri ülkeler arasındaki ticaret hacmini modellemekte kullanılırken, son zamanlardaülkeler arasındaki sermaye, göç ve bu çalışmaya konu olan turizm hareketlerini başka bir deyişle turizm talebini tahmin etmek içinde kullanılmaya başlanmıştır. Turizm sektörü son yıllarda ülke ekonomilerine katkı sağlayan sektörlerin başında gelmekte olup,diğer iktisadi sektörlerde olduğu gibi dünya ekonomisindeki değişim ve dönüşümlerden oldukça fazla etkilenmektedir. Bu çalışma,2008-2016 yıllarını kapsayan dönem için dünyada en çok turist çeken ilk 11 ülkenin turizm talebi belirleyicilerini panel çekimmodeli yardımıyla tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, ülkelerin ekonomik gücünün ve taşıma maliyetleri içinuygun bir gösterge olan, ülkeler arasındaki uzaklığın turizm talebi üzerinde önemli olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca bazı ülkeleriçin de, döviz kurunun, ülkeler arasındaki sıcaklık farkının ve konuşulan dilin de turizm talebini etkilemekte olduğunu göstermiştir.

Analysis of Tourism Demand with Gravity Model Approach

Gravity models rest on a history of 1950s, previously appear to be employed for modelling trade volumes among countries, afterwards used in capital flows, migration and modelling both tourism flows and tourism demand which issued in this study. Tourism has been a main sector to contribute nations’ economies lately and as the other economic sectors, it can be much affected by the variations and transformations in the world economy. This study aims to estimate the determinants of tourism demand of 11 the most tourist attracting countries in the world by employing panel gravity model between the years of 2008-2016. Findings show that, the economic power and, as an appropriate indicator for transportation cost, the distance between countries are presented to be important on tourism demand. Furthermore, findings reveal that foreign exchange, temperature difference among countries and spoken language have affected tourism demand for some countries

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