Türkiye’de yabancı turist girişleri ve askeri harcamalar arasındaki ilişki
Turizm sektörü hem yerel hem de uluslararası sosyal, ekonomik ve siyasal gelişmelere anında tepki veren kırılgan bir sektördür. Dolayısıyla sektörün ulusal güvenlik konusunda son derece hassas olduğu ileri sürülebilir. Bilindiği gibi Türkiye önemli bir turizm merkezidir ve jeo-stratejik konumundan kaynaklanan içsel ve dışsal bazı tehditler nedeniyle birtakım güvenlik problemleri taşımaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı Türkiye bağlamında yabancı turist girişleri ile askeri harcamalar arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkileri ARDL modeli kullanarak,1994-2019 dönemi itibarıyla tahmin etmektir. Modelde yabancı turist girişleri ile askeri harcama değişkenleri dışında kontrol değişkenleri olarak karbondioksit salınımı, GSYİH ve dışa açıklık değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada yabancı turist girişleri ile askeri harcamalar arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı negatif bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Yani askeri harcamalarda meydana gelen artış yabancı turist girişlerini olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Modelin hata düzeltme katsayısı da istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif bulunmuştur.
Anahtar Kelimeler:
Turizm, Askeri Harcamalar, ARDL sınır testi, Hata düzeltme modeli
The relationship between foreign tourist inbounds and military expenditures in Turkey
Tourism sector is a fragile sector that instantly reacts to both local and international social, economic and political developments. Therefore, it can be argued that the sector is extremely sensitive to national security. As known, Turkey is an important tourism center and carries some security problems due to the some internal and external threats stemming from its geostrategic location. The aim of the study is to estimate the both short and long term relationships between foreign tourist inbounds and military expenditures in the context of Turkey by using ARDL model for the period 1994-2019. Apart from the foreign tourist inbounds and military expenditures variables, carbon dioxide emissions, GDP and openness variables were used as control variables in the model. In the study, a statistically significant negative relationship was found between foreign tourist inbounds and military expenditures. In other words, the increase in military expenditures affects foreign tourist arrivals negatively. It was also found that the error correction coefficient of the model is statistically significant and negative.
Keywords:
Tourism, Military Expenditures, ARDL Bounds Test, Error Correction Model,
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- Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
- Başlangıç: 2019
- Yayıncı: Üzeyir KEMENT