Evacuation plan as a risk mitigation measure: Scenario - based time estimation of partial evacuation operation
Evacuation plan as a risk mitigation measure: Scenario - based time estimation of partial evacuation operation
This paper concentrates on evacuation procedure as a risk mitigation measure for managing and coping with emergency due to flood hazard. Emergency Management has been known as an ever-growing area of academic research in the recent decades. Particularly, Emergency Planning ahead of threatening events is crucial for moving toward a resilient society. Effective implementation of Emergency Contingency Plans during the situation of real Risk Scenarios is mainly a matter of situation awareness, cooperation and collaboration of involved organizations, timely decision-making under stressful circumstances, and availability of resources. Having defined a plan for evacuation operations as a protective measure is necessary for reduction of risk consequences to exposed population. This paper presents partial evacuation time estimations related to vehicle movement time by two methods applied to a case study (San Rocco al Porto, Italy) due to flood event: Time is estimated as a result of modeling by Mesoscopic approach. Second, the “timeline of emergency response for flood evacuation” proposed by Steve Opper is used as a quick handy method to estimate vehicle movement time
___
- Burghout, Wilco. (2005). "Mesoscopic simulation models for short-term prediction." PREDIKT project report CTR2005 3.
- Chiu, Yi-Chang, and Hong Zheng. (2007). "Real-time mobilization decisions for multi-priority emergency response resources and evacuation groups: Model formulation and solution." Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 43, no. 6: 710-736.
- Chiu Y., Zheng H. (2006). Real-time mobilization decisions for multi-priority emergency responce resources and evacuation groups: Model formulation and sollution, pp. 710,712.
- Dell’Orco, Mauro. (2006). "A dynamic network loading model for mesosimulation in transportation systems." European journal of operational research 175, no. 3: 1447-1454.
- FEMA. (2007). Principles of Emergency Management Supplement. Lindell, Michael K. (2008)."EMBLEM2: An empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model." Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 42, no. 1: 140-154.
- Lindell, Michael K., and Carla S. Prater. (2007). "Critical behavioral assumptions in evacuation time estimate analysis for private vehicles: Examples from hurricane research and planning." Journal of Urban Planning and Development 133, no. 1: 18-29.
- Lindell, Michael K., Carla S. Prater, and Jie Ying Wu. (2002). Hurricane evacuation time estimates for the Texas Gulf Coast. Hazard Reduction & Recovery Center, Texas A & M University.
- Litman, Todd. (2006). "Lessons from Katrina and Rita: What major disasters can teach transportation planners." Journal of Transportation Engineering 132, no. 1: 11-18.
- Opper, Steve. (2004). The application of timelines to evacuation planning. SES.
- Opper ESM, Stephen, Peter Cinque OAM, and Belinda Davies. (2010). "Timeline modelling of flood evacuation operations." Procedia Engineering 3. 175-187.
- Perry, Ronald W., and Michael K. Lindell. (2003). "Preparedness for emergency response: guidelines for the emergency planning process." Disasters 27, no. 4 : 336-350.
- Raggi, Meri; Davide Ronchi; Laura Sardonini; Davide Viaggi. (2007). Po Basin Case study status report. AquaMoney. Retrieved 6 April 2009.
- Schwartz, Peter. (1996). "The Art Of The Long View: Planning For The Future In An Uncertain World Author: Peter Schwartz, Publisher: Currency Doubl." 272.
- Vorst, Harrie. (2010). "Evacuation models and disaster psychology." Procedia Engineering 3: 15-21.
- Wolshon, Brian, Elba Urbina, and Marc Levitan. (2001). National review of hurricane evacuation plans and policies. Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Hurricane Center.
- Zwingle, Erla (May 2002). Italy's Po River Punished for centuries by destructive floods, northern Italians stubbornly embrace their nation's longest river, which nurtures rice fields, vineyards, fisheries—and legends. National
- Geographic. Retrieved 6 April 2009. http://www.citilabs.com/products/cube/cube-avenue http://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/ http://demo.istat.it/bil2010/index.html http://www.comune.sanroccoalporto.lo.it/home/il-paese/