Türkiye’de Yatırımlar ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik ve Uzun Dönem Analizi

Bu çalışma yatırımlar ve ihracat değişkenleri arasındaki nedensellik ve kısa-uzun dönem ilişkiyi Türkiye’nin 1980-2019 dönemi verileri ile açıklamaktadır. KPSS durağanlık testine bağlı olarak yatırımlar ve ihracat serilerinin birinci farklarının durağan olduğuna ulaşılmasından sonra ARDL sınır testini istihdam ederek bir eş bütünleşme testi uygulanmıştır. Bu analiz sonuçları Türkiye’de yatırımlar ve ihracat değişkenlerinin eş bütünleşik olduğu ve uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Uzun dönem katsayı tahmin bulguları uzun dönemde yatırımların ihracatı pozitif yönlü istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkileyeceğini göstermektedir. Başka bir deyişle, yatırımlardaki %1’lik bir artışın, uzun dönemde ihracat seviyesinde %0,13 kadar bir artışa neden olmaktadır. Ayrıca tahmin edilen model; oto korelasyon, değişen varyans, normallik ve model belirleme ile ilişkili problemlere sahip bulunmamaktadır. Sonuç olarak; nedensellik test sonuçları, yatırımlardan ihracata doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yatırımlar, İhracat, Türkiye, Nedensellik

Causality and Long-term Analysis between Investments and Exports in Turkey

This study examined causality association and short- and long-term relationship between investments and exports in Turkey for the period of 1980–2019. After detecting that series of investment and export are stationary at first differences based on KPSS stationarity test, a co-integration test was implemented by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test, the results of which disclosed that investments and exports in Turkey are co-integrated and move together over the long-term. The long-term coefficient estimation findings showed that investments positively and statistically significantly affect exports over the long-term. In other words, an increase in the investment level by 1% induced increase in the export level by 0.13% over the long-term. Meantime the estimated model had no problems with regard to autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, normality, and model specification. Finally, the causality test results indicated that there was only a one-way causality relationship running from the investments to the exports.

Keywords:

Investments, Exports, Turkey, Causality,

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