Virtual Failure Analysis of the Çınarcık Dam

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Virtual Failure Analysis of the Çınarcık Dam

In the present study, analyses of fictitious failure of a dam under a set of pre-defined scenarios, within the extent of a case study, has been performed. The subject of the study is the Çınarcık Dam, located within Bursa Province of Turkey. The failure of the dam is assumed to be triggered when certain critical criteria are exceeded. Hence, the analyses focus on the aftermath of the failure and strive to anticipate the level of inundation with respect to time downstream of the dam itself. For the purpose of the analyses, the FLDWAV software developed by the National Weather Service of USA is used to spatially and temporally predict the flow profiles, water surface elevations and discharges occurring downstream of the Çınarcık Dam under the defined set of scenarios. Based on these analyses, indicative inundation maps and settlements under risk were identified, and also some suggested pre-event measures that may be taken in advance will be addressed