A Method for Determination of Accident Probability in the Construction Industry
A Method for Determination of Accident Probability in the Construction Industry
Safety issues within the construction industry have been an area of concern in almost everycountry. In this paper, an objective and quantitative accident probability calculation approachis proposed using 623 actual construction accidents that resulted in 681 casualties betweenthe years 2000 and 2013. Of these accidents, the first five account for 84.1% of all fatalitiesand 85.4% of all injuries. In total, five construction jobs (excavation, reinforced concretework, masonry, plastering and painting, and roof work) were the focus of the study, as theyaccount for 70.8% of all occurrences. Probability values were calculated by using the Poissondistribution, in which accident rates and exposure values were used as distributionparameters. In an industry where accidents are recorded according to non-specific standards,it is very difficult to represent the probability of accidents within a known distribution model.The proposed approach in this paper provides an objective method to obtain probabilities byusing the Poisson distribution for construction accidents.
___
- Statistics – The Poisson Distribution. 02.07.2015. Retrieved from
- Kjellen, U., Preventation of accidents through experience feedback. London.GBR:
CRC Press, 2000.
- MS Project, 2013.
(retrieved 07.01.13).
- Primavera P6 Software, 2013.
(retrieved 04.02.13).
- Fine, W. T., & Kinney, W. D. 1971. Mathematical evaluation for controlling hazards.
Journal of Safety Research, 3(4), 157−166.
- Van Geelen, H., Volckaert, A., Sarrazin, R., Janssens, I., 2016. Evolutionary approach
of accident concentration zones. Transportation Research Procedia, 14, 3332 – 3341.
- Cafisoa, S.,Di Silvestroa, G., Di Guardoa, G., 2012. Application of Highway Safety
Manual to Italian divided multilane highways. Procedia - Social and Behavioral
Sciences 53, 911 – 920.
- Borsos, A, Cafiso, S., D’Agostino, C., Miletics, D., 2016. Comparison of Italian and
Hungarian black spot ranking. Transportation Research Procedia, 14, 2148 – 2157.
- Zhang, S., Teizer, J., Lee, J. K., Eastman, C. M., Venugopal, M., 2013. Building
information modelling (BIM) and safety: automatic safety checking of construction
models and schedules. Automation in Construction, 29,183-195.
- ILO. 1998. Meeting of Experts on Labour Statistics. Report MELSOI/1998/1, Geneva.
Ingstad, O. and Bodsberg, L., 1989. CRIOP: A Scenario - Method for Evaluation of the
Offshore Control Centre. SINTEF, Report No. STF75 A89028, Trondheim.
- OSHA. 1971/97. Recording and reporting occupational injuries and illness.
Regulations, Part 1904, Occupational Safety and Health Administration, U.S.
Departmant of Labor, Washington, D.C.
- Bilir, S., & Gurcanli, G. E. (2016). A Method to Calculate the Accident Probabilities
in Construction Industry Using a Poisson Distribution Model. In Advances in Safety
Management and Human Factors (pp. 513-523). Springer, Cham.
- Bilir, S. (2015). An Activity Based Occupational Safety Risk Assessment Method
Integated to The Project Schedule In Construction Projects. (Doctoral dissertation,
Institude of Science and Technology).
- Erginel, N., & TOPTANCI, Ş. (2017). Is Kazası Verilerinin Olasılık Dağılımları İle
Modellenmesi. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 5(SI), 201-212.
- Birgönül, M. T., & Dikmen, İ. (1996). İnşaat projelerinin risk yönetimi. İMO teknik
Dergi, 7(4), 1305-1326.
- Woodruff, J. M. 2005. Consequence and likelihood in risk estimation: A matter of
balance in UK health and safety risk assessment practice. Safety Science, 43(5), 345-
353.
- Casanovas, M. M., Armengou,J., Ramos, G. 2014. Occupational risk ındex for
assessment of risk in construction work by activity. Journal of Construction
Engineering and Management,Vol. 140, pp.04013035-1-04013035-9.
- BLS. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2013. (retrieved
25.06.13).
- Mitropoulos, P., Namboodiri M., 2011. New method for measuring the safety risk of
construction activities: task demand assessment. J. of Constr. Eng and Manage., 137(
1), 30-38.
- Sun, Y., Fang, D., Wang, S., Dai, M., and Lv, X. 2008. Safety risk identification and
assessment for Beijing Olympic venues construction.”J. Manage. Eng., 24(1), 40–47.
- Hallowell, M. and Gambatese, J. 2009. Activity-Based Safety Risk Quantification for
Concrete Formwork Construction. J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 135(10), 990–998.
- Jannadi, O., and Almishari, S. 2003. Risk assessment in construction. J. Constr. Eng.
Manage., 129(5), 492–500.
- Lee, S., and Halpin, D. 2003. Predictive tool for estimating accident risk. J. Constr.
Eng. Manage., 129(4), 431–436.
- Brauer, R. L. 1994. Risk management and assessment. Safety and health for engineers,
Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, 543–572.
- Wang, Y., Weidmann, U., A., Wang, W., 2017. Using catastrophe theory to describe
railway system safety and discuss system risk concept. Safety Science, 91, 269-285.
- Jocelyn, S., Chinniah, Y., Ouali, M., S., 2016. Contribution of dynamic experience
feedback to the quantitative estimation of risks for preventing accidents: A proposed
methodology for machinery safety. Safety Science, 88, 64-75.
- Van Nunen, K., Reniers, G., Ponnet, K., Cozzani, V., 2016. Major accident prevention
decision-making: A large-scale survey-based analysis. Safety Science, 88, 242-250.
- Baradan, S , Akboga, O , Cetinkaya, U , Usmen, M . (2016). Ege Bölgesindeki İnşaat
İş Kazalarının Sıklık ve Çapraz Tablolama Analizleri. Teknik Dergi, 27 (1), 7345-
7370.
- Tozer, K , Celik, T , Gurcanli, G . (2018). Classification of Construction Accidents in
Northern Cyprus. Teknik Dergi, 29 (2), 8295-8316. DOI: 10.18400/tekderg.325546
- Zwetsloot, G.I.H.M., Kines, P., Wybo, J.L., Ruotsala, R., Drupsteen, L., Bezemer, R.
A., 2017. Zero Accident Vision based strategies in organisations: Innovative
perspectives. Safety Science, 91, 260-268.
- Zhang, S., Sulankivi, K., Kiviniemi, M., Romo, I., Eastman, C. M., Teizer, J., 2015.
BIM-based fall hazard identification and prevention in construction safety planning.
Safety Science, 72, 31-45.
- Raviv, R., Fishbain, B., Shapira, A., 2017b. AHP-based analysis of the risk potential of
safety incidents: Case study of cranes in the construction industry. Safety Science, 91,
298-309.
- Raviv, R., Fishbain, B., Shapira, A., 2017a. Analyzing risk factors in crane-related nearmiss
and accident reports. Safety Science, 91, 192-205.
- Park, C. S., Kim, H. J., 2012. A framework for construction safety management and
visualization system. Automation in Construction 33, 95–103.
- Irumba R., 2014. Spatial analysis of construction accidents in Kampala, Uganda. Safety
Science. 64. 109-120.
- Hallowell, M. 2011. Risk-Based Framework for Safety Investment in Construction
Organizations. J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 137(8), 592–599.
- Gurcanli G.E., Mungen U., 2009. An occupational safety risk analysis method at
construction sites using fuzzy sets. International J. of Industrial Ergonomics 39(2), 371-
387.
- Gangolells, M., Casals, M., Forcada, N., Roca, X. and Fuertes, A. 2010. Mitigating
construction safety risks using prevention through design. Journal of Safety Research,
Vol. 41, 107-122.
- Gnoni, M. G., Saleh, J. H., 2017. Near-miss management systems and observability-indepth:
Handling safety incidents and accident precursors in light of safety principles.
Safety Science, 91, 154-167.
- Baradan, S., and Usmen, M. A. 2006. Comparative injury and fatality risk analysis of
building trades. J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 132(5), 533–539.
- Gurcanli G.E., Mungen U., 2013. Analysis of construction accidents in turkey and
responsible parties. National Industrial Health, 51 (6), 581-595.
- Gurcanli E., Bilir S., Sevim M., 2015. Activity Based Risk Assessment And Safety
Cost Estimation For Residential Building Construction Projects. Safety Science, 2015,
80, 1–12, DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2015.07.002.
- SSI. Social Security Institution Occupational Accidents Statistics Report, 2012.
10.12.2013. Retrieved from http://www.isteguvenlik.tc/SGK2012IsKazaIstatistik.pdf
(in Turkish).
- ILO. International Labour Organization, Statistics and Database, LABORSTA,
Occupational Injuries.
(retrieved 06.04.2014)
- Yi, J.-s., Kim Y.-w., Kim K.-a., Koo B. 2012. A suggested color scheme for reducing
perception-related accidents on construction work sites. Accident Analysis and
Prevention, 48, 185-192.
- Loosemore, M., Andonakis, N., 2007. Barriers to implementing OHS reforms – the
experience of small subcontractors in the Australian construction industry.
International Journal of Project Management 25, 579–588.
- CFOI. Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries Report,
2013. (retrieved 12.05.14).
- Zou, P., X.,W., Sunindijo, R., Y., 2013. Skills for managing safety risk, implementing
safety task, and developing positive safety climate in construction project. Automation
in Construction, 34, 92-100.