Mohammed Sanusi SADIQ, Invinder Paul SINGH, Muhammad Makarfi AHMAD

Dünyada Buğdayın Simetrik Piyasa Entegrasyonu

Bu çalışma dünyanın önde gelen üretici ülkelerinin fiyat zaman serilerini (1966-2018) kullanarak buğdayın dünyadaki piyasa entegrasyonunu belirlemiştir. Veriler FAO veri tabanından alınmış ve birim kök testleri, Engel-Granger ve Johansen eşbütünleşme testleri, Granger nedensellik ve dürtüsellik testleri ve kısıtlı vektör otoregresyon (VAR), otoregresif entegre hareketli ortalama (ARIMA) modelleri kullanılarak veri analizi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, tek fiyat (LOP) kanununun veya paritenin, bu piyasalar arasındaki zayıf eşbütünleşme nedeniyle bu piyasalarda geçerli olmadığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca Hindistan, ABD ve Çin piyasalarının buğday fiyatları uzun dönemli dengeyi sağladıkları için etkindir. Ancak, Avustralya, Kanada ve Fransa piyasalarının, kısa vadeli dengesizlik ayarlama süreçleri istikrarlı uzun vadeli fiyatlara yol açmayacağı için otarşik piyasalar olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. ABD piyasa fiyatlarının göreli bir takipçisi olduğu ve küresel buğday ticaretinde çok az rol oynadığı veya hiç rol oynamadığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu nedenle, çalışma, piyasa entegrasyonunu ve fiyat aktarımını geliştirmek için dünya çapında birbirinden neredeyse eşit mesafede bir buğday emtia ağının tasarlanmasını önermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Entegrasyon, Piyasa, Buğday, Dünya

Symmetric Market Integration of Wheat in the World

This study determined market integration of wheat in the world using price time series (1966-2018) of major world producing countries. The data were sourced from FAO database and data analysis were performed using unit root tests, Engel-Granger and Johansen co-integration tests, Granger causality and impulse response tests, restricted vector auto-regression (VAR), and auto-regression integration moving average (ARIMA) models. The empirical evidence showed that the law of one price (LOP) or parity in prices failed to hold in these markets due to poor co- integration among these markets. Furthermore, the wheat prices of Indian, USA and China markets were efficient as they established long-run equilibrium. However, Australian, Canadian and France markets were observed to be autarkic markets as short-run disequilibrium adjustment processes will not lead to stable long-run prices. It was established that USA market prices is a relative follower and plays little or no role in the global wheat trade. Therefore, the study recommends that a network of wheat commodity network across the globe at almost equal distance from each other for the enhancement of market integration and price transmission should be designed.

Keywords:

Integration, Market, Wheat, World,

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