TÜRKİYE, GLOBAL CARİ DENGE(SİZLİK)LER ve KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME

Global cari dengesizlikler” ve “kapsayıcı büyüme” kavramları eş-zamanlı yükselirken, iki yaklaşım arasındaki ilişki doğrudan incelenmemiştir. Oysa finansal derinlik, borç yükü, finansal açıklık gibi parametreler üzerinden büyümenin kapsayıcılığını değerlendiren pek çok çalışma vardır. Bu çalışmada “cari denge(sizlik)ler” ve “kapsayıcı büyüme” literatürü bağımsızca değerlendirilip yaklaşımların ortak kümesi çözümlenmiş; “global denge(sizlik)ler ile “kapsayıcı büyüme”nin yakın ilişkili olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmış; Türkiye ekonomisi için kapsayıcı büyüme-cari denge(sizlik)ler ilişkisi bölgesel ticaretin dağılımı da dikkate alınarak çözümlenmiştir. Çalışmada cari hesap dengesinin yanında göç, güvenlik ve savunma benzeri değişkenlerin de ülke coğrafyalarına bağlı olarak kapsayıcılık üzerinde etkili olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kapsayıcı büyüme, Global Cari Dengesizlikler, Küresel Ekonomi, Bölgesel Ekonomi.

TURKEY, GLOBAL (IM)BALANCES and INCLUSIVE GROWTH

Beside the literature using parameters such like financial dept, debt burden or financial openness in order to identify the inclusiveness path of an economy, the interrelation among “global imbalances” and “inclusive growth” approaches, which were also emerged at the same period, has not been recognised yet. In this study, these two approaches viewed independently with the aim of determining their intersection axis, and Turkey’s growth path has been evaluated in terms of inclusiveness and global imbalances while considering regional trade dynamics too. It is proven beside current account balance variable, complementary indicators affacted by geography such as defense, security, or immigration movements mustn’t be underestimated.

Keywords:

Inclusive growth, Global Imbalances, Global Economy, Regional Economy,

PDF

___

ALİ, Ifzal& Son, Hyun Hwa (2007). Measuring Inclusive Growth. Asian Development Review. Vol. 24, No. 1, pp.11–31.
BHALLA, Sheila (2007). Inclusive Growth? Focus on Employment. Social Scientist. Vol. 35, No. 7/8, pp. 24–43.
CABALLERO, R., Farhi, E.& Gourinchas, P.O. (2008). An Equilibrium Model of ‘Global Imbalances’ and Low Interest Rates. American Economic Review. 98:1, pp. 358-393.
CHINN, Menzie D. (2005). Getting Serious about the Twin Deficits. Council on Foreign Relations Special Report, No. 10, Council on Foreign Relations Press.
CHINN, Menzie D. (2013). Global Imbalances. In Caprio, Gerard (ed), The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization (Vol. 3, pp 67-79). Oxford: Elsevier Inc..
CHINN, M.D., Eichengreen, B.& Ito, H.(2011). A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances. NBER, No. 17513.
CHINN, M.D.& Ito, Hiro (2008). Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy versus East Asian Savings. Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Vol. 16(3), pp. 479-498.
DOOLEY, Michael P., Folkerts-Landau, David& Garber, Peter (2003). An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System. NBER, No. 9971.
ENGEL, Charles& Rogers, John H. (2006). The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output. NBER, No. 11921.
ENGLE, R.&Granger, C.V. (1987). Cointegration and Error-Correction: Representation, Estimation and Tasting. Econometrica, Vol. 55, pp. 251-263.
FRANKEL, Jeffrey& Wei, Shang-Jin (1995). Emerging Currency Blocs. In (ed) Genberg, Hans (2012), The International Monetary System: Its Institutions and its Future (pp. 111-143). Berlin: Springer.
GROSSE, M., Harttgen, K.& Klasen, S. (2008). Measuring Pro-Poor Growth in Non-Income Dimensions. World Development. Vol. 36, No. 6, pp. 1021–1047.
HABITO, Cielito F. (2009). Patterns of Inclusive Growth in Asia: Insights from an Enhanced GrowthPoverty Elasticity Analysis. ADBI Working Paper Series. No. 145. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute.
IANCHOVICHINA, Elena& Lundstrom, Susanna (2009). Inclusive Growth Analytics: Framework and Application. Policy Research Working Paper. No. 4851. Washington: World Bank.
IANCHOVICHINA, Elena, Lundstrom, Susanna& Garrido, Leonardo (2009). What is Inclusive Growth. Erişim Tarihi: 26.02.2011, http://siteresources. worldbank.org/INTDEBTDEPT/Resources/468980-1218567884549/WhatIsInclusiveGrowth20081230.pdf.
KAKWANI, Nanak& Pernia, Ernesto (2000). What is Pro-poor Growth?. Asian Development Review: Studies of Asian and Pacific Economic Issues. Vol. 18, No. 1. Philippines: Asian Development Bank.
KAKWANI, Nanak& Son, Hyun Hwa (2005). On Assessing Pro-poorness of Government Programmes: International Comparisons. International Poverty Center-Working Paper. No. 6. New York: UNDP.
KAKWANI, N., Khandker, S.& Son, H.H. (2004). Pro-poor Growth: Concepts and Measurement with Country Case Studies. IPC-IG Working Paper. No. 1. Brasília: International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
KENNEDY, Mike& Sløk, Torsten (2005). Are Structural Reforms the Answer to Global Current Account Imbalances?. OECD Economic Studies No. 41.
KLASEN, Stephan (2010). Measuring and Monitoring Inclusive Growth: Multiple Definitions, Open Questions, and Some Constructive Proposals. ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series. No. 12. Philippines: Asian Development Bank.
KRAAY, Aart (2004). When Is Growth Pro-Poor? Cross-Country Evidence. IMF Working Paper. No. 4/47. Washington: International Monetary Fund.
MCKINLEY, Terry (2010(. Inclusive Growth Criteria and Indicators: An Inclusive Growth Index for Diagnosis of Country Progress. ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series. No. 14. Philippines: Asian Development Bank.
RAUNIYAR, Ganesh& Kanbur, Ravi (2010). Inclusive Development: Two Papers on Conceptualization, Application, and the ADB Perspective. Philippines: Asian Development Bank.
RAVALLION, Martin& Chen, Shaohua (2003). Measuring Pro-poor Growth. Economics Letters. No: 78, pp. 93–99.
SAMANS, R., Blanke, J., Drzeniek Hanouz, M.& Corrigan G. (2017). The Inclusive Growth and Development Report 2017. Geneva: World Economic Forum.
SOLT, Frederick (2017). The Standardized World Income Inequality Database. Social Science Quarterly. 97, SWIID Version 6.1.
SON, Hyun Hwa& Kakwani, Nanak (2008). Global Estimates of Pro-Poor Growth. World Development. Vol. 36, No. 6, pp. 1048–1066.
UNDP (2018). What is Inclusive Growth. Erişim Tarihi: 27.02.2018, http://www.ipc-undp.org/what-inclusive-growth.
WHITE, Howard& Anderson, Edward (2001). Growth versus Distribution: Does the Pattern of Growth Matter. Development Policy Review. Vol. 19, Issue 3, pp. 267–289.
World Bank (2018). World Development Indicators: Poverty Rates at International Poverty Lines. Erişim Tarihi: 25.08.2018, http://wdi.worldbank.org/table/1.2.2.
MF (2018). IMF Data Mapper. Erişim Tarihi: 27.08.2018, http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/BCA@WEO/TUR.