HOLLANDA’DA MALİYE POLİTİKALARININ İŞSİZLİK ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ

Bu makale Hollanda’da maliye politikalarının etkilerini VAR bağlamında analiz etmektedir. Mali şokların GSMH, işsizlik, tüketim ve yatırım üzerinde anlamlı etkilerinin olduğu bulunmuştur. Bu bağlamda, Keynezyen etkiler gözlemlenmiştir. Buna ilave olarak, sonuçlar bize işsizliğin mali sıkılaştırmayla arttığını, mali genişleme ile azaldığını göstermiştir. Devlet harcamaları arttığında üretimin arttığı; vergiler arttığında ise üretimin azaldığı bulunmuştur.. Sosyal güvenlik vergisinde olası bir artışın işsizlikte artışa yol açtığı tespit edilmiştir. Yine, sonuçlar göstermiştir ki, sosyal güvenlik vergileri, Hollanda’da politika yapıcılar için, toplam vergilere göre GSMH ve özel bileşenleri üzerindeki tesirleri bakımından daha etkili bir araçtır

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Devlet Harcaması, Toplam Net Vergiler, Sosyal Güvenlik Vergileri, İşsizlik

The Unemployment Effects Of Fiscal Policy In Netherlands

This paper focuses on the effects of fiscal policy in Netherlands analyzed in a VAR context. Fiscal shocks are found to involve significant impacts on GDP, unemployment rate, consumption and investment. In this regard, Keynesian effects are observed. In addition, the results suggest that unemployment rises in response to a fiscal contraction whereas it falls following a fiscal expansion. When government spending increases output increases; when total net taxes increase output falls. A social security tax innovation also leads to a rise in unemployment rate. Moreover, the results indicate that the social security taxes is a more effective tool compared to total net taxes for policymakers in Netherlands in terms of GDP and its private components

Keywords:

-,

PDF

___

ALESINA, A., Ardagna, S., Perotti, R., Schiantarelli, F., (2002). “Fiscal Policy, Profits and Investment”, American Economic Review, 92(3): 571-589.
ANDREA Bassanini & Romain Duval, (2006). "Employment Patterns in OECD Countries: Reassessing the Role of Policies and Institutions", OECD Economics Department Working Papers 486, OECD Publishing.
BEETSMA R. and Giuliodori M. (2010), Discretionary Fiscal Policy: Review and Estimates for the EU, CESifo Working Paper, No. 2948.
BIAU O., Girard E. (2005). “Politique Budgétaire et Dynamique Économique en France: l'approche VAR Structurel”, Économie et Prévision, 1(24): 169–171.
BLANCHARD, O., Perotti R., (2002). “An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 177: 1329-1368.
BURNSIDE, C., Eichenbaum, M. and Fisher, J. (2004). “Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences”, Journal of Economic Theory, 115: 89-117.
BURRIEL, P., De Castro, F., Garrote, D., Gordo, E., Paredes, J., Perez, J. (2010). “Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the US: An Empirical Assessment”, Fiscal Studies, 31(2): 251-285.
COHEN, D., Folette, G. (1999). “The Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers: Quietly Doing Their Thing”, Division of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Board.
CORSETTI G. and G. J. Muller. (2006). “Twin Decits: Squaring Theory, Evidence and Common Sense”, Economic Policy, 48: 598-638.
DE CASTRO, F. and de Cos, P. (2008). “The Economic Effects of Fiscal Policy: The Case of Spain”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 30: 1005-1028.
FATÁS, A. and Mihov, I. (2001). “The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence”. CEPR Discussion 2760.
HEBOUS, S. (2011). “The Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy on Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal", 25(4): 674-707.
MONACELLI, T. and Perotti, R. (2010). “Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Traded Goods”, Economic Journal, 120: 437-461.
MOUNFORD, A., Uhlig, H., (2008). “What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?”, NBER Working Paper Series, 14551.
PEROTTI, R. (2007). “In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy”, NBER Macroeconomic Manual.
PEROTTI, R., (2004). “Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries”, CEPR Working Paper no: 276.
ROMER, C. and Bernstein, J. (2009). “The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan”, http://otrans.3cdn.net/45593e8ecbd339d074_l3m6bt1te.pdf
SIMS, CHRISTOPHER (1980). "Macroeconomics and Reality", Econometrica 48(1): 1–48.
UHLIG, H. (2005), "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure", Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, 381-419.
VAN Der Noord (2002), “The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 230.