Tasarruf ve Kâr Oranları ile Konjonktür Dalgalanmaları Arasındaki İlişki

Konjonktür dalgalanmalarının kaynakları, nedenleri ve belirleyicileri konusunda iktisat okullarının farklı yaklaşımları söz konusudur. Bu yaklaşımlar Klasik ve Keynesyen akım çerçevesinde şekillenmiştir. 2008 yılında yaşanan Küresel Finans Krizi konjonktür dalgalanmaları ile ilgili literatürün yeniden canlanmasına zemin hazırlamıştır. Bu çalışmada, OECD ekonomilerinde, 1990 2013 dönemi için, ekonomideki faaliyetlerin büyük bir bölümünü gerçekleştiren özel sektörün tasarruf ve kâr oranlarının ekonomide bir canlanmaya mı yoksa resesyona mı yol açtığı panel veri yöntemleri kullanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Bulgular; kâr ve bir yıl gecikmesi alınmış tasarruf oranlarının konjonktür dalgalanmaları üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bir başka ifadeyle, tasarruf ve kâr oranlarındaki artış trend düzeyinden yukarı doğru sapmalara neden olmaktadır. Diğer taraftan analizlerde kullanılan; ticari ve finansal açıklık, toplam faktör verimliliği, ileri teknoloji ihracatı, yurt içi kredi hacmi, M2 para arzı, reel döviz kuru ve hükümet harcamaları değişkenlerindeki artışlar trend düzeyinden yukarı (canlanma eğilimi), faiz, enflasyon ve işsizlik oranları ise trend düzeyinden aşağıya doğru (resesyon eğilimi) sapmalara yol açmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Tasarruf Oranı, Kâr Oranı, Konjonktür Dalgalanmaları, Panel Veri Analizi

The Relationship Between Saving, Profit Rates and Business Cycles

There are different approaches of economics schools on the sources, causes and determinants of business cycles. These approaches have been shaped in the Classical and Keynesian currents. The Global Financial Crisis that lived in 2008 laid the groundwork for the revival of the literature on business cycles. By using the panel data methods for the period between 1990 and 2013 in OECD economies, this study has investigated the effects of private sector profit and savings rates playing an important role in creating the cyclical fluctuations. The findings show that profit and the lagged saving rates have positive effect on the cyclical fluctuations. In other words, an increase in profit and savi ngs rates causes the upward deviations from the trend level. On the other hand, the increases in the variables used in the analysis, like commercial and financial openness, total factor productivity, high-tech exports, domestic credit volume, M2 money supply, real exchange rate and government spendings, give rise to upward deviations tendency to boom) from the trend level while interest, inflation and unemployment rates have a reverse situation (tendency to recession).

Keywords:

Saving Rate, Profit Rate, Business Cycles, Panel Data Analysis,

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