Kadın İstihdamı ile Doğum Oranı Arasındaki İlişki Üzerine Eşbütünleşme Analizi: İsveç ve ABD Örneği

Çalışmada kadın istihdamı ve doğum oranı arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki incelenmektedir. Doğum oranının kadın istihdamına etkisi İsveç ve ABD için 1991-2020 yılları verilerinden hareketle zaman seri analizi araştırma yöntemi olarak kullanılmıştır. Analizlerle hem ABD hem İsveç için kadın istihdamı ve doğum oranı arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. ABD için uzun dönemli katsayı tahmin sonuçları incelendiğinde, doğum oranının kadın istihdam oranını FMOLS modelinde 0.80, DOLS modelinde 0.91 ve CCR modelinde ise 0.64 birim artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. İsveç için uzun dönem tahmin sonuçlarında doğum oranının kadın istihdam oranını FMOLS modelinde 1.41 ve CCR modelinde ise 0.71 birim artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla, uzun dönemli katsayı tahmin sonuçlarına göre iki ülke için de kadın istihdam oranı ile doğum oranı arasında pozitif yönlü bir ilişki olduğu görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Doğum Oranı, Kadın İstihdamı, Zaman Serisi Analizi

Cointegration Analysis on the Relationship between Women's Employment and Birth Rate: The Case of Sweden and the USA

This study examines the long-term relationship between female employment and birth rate. The study used the time series analysis method based on 1991-2020 for Sweden and the USA. As a result of the analysis, a cointegration relationship between female employment and birth rate was determined for both the USA and Sweden. When the long-term coefficient estimation results for the USA are examined, it is determined that the birth rate increases the female employment rate by 0.80 in the FMOLS model, 0.91 in the DOLS model, and 0.64 units in the CCR model. In the long-term estimation results for Sweden, it was determined that the birth rate increased the female employment rate by 1.41 units in the FMOLS model and 0.71 units in the CCR model. Therefore, according to the long-term coefficient estimation results, it is seen that there is a positive relationship between the female employment rate and the birth rate in both countries.

Keywords:

Birth Rate, Female Employment, Time Series Analysis,

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