Seyed-nezamuddin MAKİYAN, Seyed Mohamad Saleh NAJAFİ FARASHAH

İran’da Vergi Şoklarının GSMH ve Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisinin Dinamik Stokastik Genel Denge Yaklaşımı ile Analizi

Bu çalışma, İran ekonomisinde dolaylı vergi şoklarının GSMH ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkilerini bir DSGD (Dinamik Stokastik Genel Denge) modeli kullanarak incelemektedir. Sonuçlar, tüketim vergisindeki standart sapmaya eşit bir şok nedeninin GSMH'yı %0,006 ve enflasyonu %0,018 azaltabileceğini göstermektedir. İthalat üzerinden alınan vergilerdeki bir şok ise, ithal mallara olan talebin azalması nedeniyle GSMH'nın %0,089 oranında düşmesine neden olmaktadır. Ayrıca, ithalat üzerinden alınan vergi şokunun meydana gelmesiyle ithal mallar %0,4 oranında azalırken; enflasyon kısa vadede %0,89 artmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, dolaylı vergiler için olası bir reform çalışması yapılırken daha dikkatli bir şekilde konu ele alınmalı ve tartışılmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Vergi Şoku, Tüketim Vergisi, İthalat Vergisi, Dinamik Stokastik Genel Denge Modeli

The Effects of Tax Shocks on GNP and Inflation in Iran, A DSGE Approach

This study investigates indirect tax shocks' influences on GDP and inflation in Iran’s economy, using a DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model. The results indicate that a shock cause equal to one standard deviation in tax on consumption can reduce GDP by 0.006% and inflation by 0.018%. Also, a shock in the import tax causes the GDP to decrease by 0.089% due to the decrease in demand for imported goods. Moreover, imported goods reduce by 0.4% with the occurrence of import tax shock; meanwhile, inflation increases by 0.89% in the short term. Accordingly, a possible reform for indirect taxes should be more carefully considered.

Keywords:

Tax Shock, Consumption Tax, Import Tax, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model,

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