Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye’de İstihdam Yaratmıyor Mu? (2000-2018)

Bu çalışmanın amacı 2000Q1-2018Q4 döneminde GYİH ile istihdam arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin araştırılmasıdır. Bu ilişki büyümenin istihdam yaratma kapasitesinde sorunlar bulunan Türkiye için önem taşımaktadır. Türkiye’de 2000’li yıllardaki yüksek büyüme performansına rağmen istihdam oranları OECD ortalamalarının oldukça altında seyretmiştir. 2004Q1-2018Q4 döneminde Engle-Granger testi ile büyümenin istihdam esnekliği 0.15’tir. Dönemin tamamında elastikiyet 0.04 ile çok daha düşüktür. Değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli koentegrasyon ilişkisi Johansen testi ile doğrulanmış ve bir ECM modeli kurularak nedensellik araştırılmıştır. Granger testi de gelir ve istihdam arasında gelirden istihdama doğru nedensellik bulunduğunu tespit etmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Büyüme, Büyümenin İstihdam Esnekliği, İstihdam, Koentegrasyon, Hata Düzeltme (ECM), Granger Nedensellik Testi

Turkish Economic Growth: (Non) Labour Creating? (2000-2018)

The study aims to analyse the long-term relationship between GDP and employment during 2000Q1-2018Q4. The relation is important for Turkey who has problems with employment creation capacity of growth. However, the high growth performance of Turkey during the 2000s employment ratios have well remained below OECD averages. Employment elasticity of growth is 0.15 for the 2004Q1-2018Q4 period with the Engle-Granger test. The elasticity for the entire period is much weaker, like 0.04. Johansen tests confirm the long-run cointegration between two variables, and an error-correction model (ECM) is built for detecting causality. Granger tests also reveal causality from GDP to employment.

Keywords:

Growth, Employment Intensity of Growth, Employment, Cointegration, Error Correction (ECM), Granger Causality Test,

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