ABD Ticaret Politikası Belirsizliğinin Türk Finansal Piyasalarına ve Banka Kredilerine Etkileri

Uzun yıllar boyunca, belirsizliğin ülkeler arasında aktarılması, literatürdeki en sıcak konulardan biri olmuştur. Bu çalışma, ABD’nin ticaret politikası belirsizliğinin Türkiye’deki hisse-senedi piyasasının, bankalarca verilen kredilerin ve yatırımcı duyarlılığının üzerindeki etkisini inceleyerek bu literatüre katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Doğrusal olmayan otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (NARDL) yaklaşımı kullanılarak değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşmenin varlığı gösterilmiştir. Bulgularımız, ABD’nin ticaret politikası belirsizliğinin Türkiye için hem hisse fiyatları hem de banka kredileri üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğunu gösterirken ne uzun ne de kısa vadede yatırımcı duyarlılığı üzerinde önemli bir etkisinin olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışma, ABD politikalarının Türkiye’deki finansal piyasa oyuncuları ve yatırımcıları üzerindeki etkilerinin göz ardı edilemeyeceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ticaret Politikası Belirsizliği, NARDL, Hisse Senedi Piyasası, Banka Kredileri, Yatırımcı Duyarlılığı

Effects of the US Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Turkish Financial Markets and Bank Loans

For many decades, the transmission of uncertainty among countries has been one of the hottest topics in the literature. This study aims to contribute to this literature by studying the impact of the U.S.’s trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the Turkish stock market, bank loans, and investor sentiment. We employ a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach. An existing cointegration between variables is demonstrated. Our findings also show that while the U.S.’s TPU significantly influences both share prices and bank loans, it does not seem to substantially impact Turkey’s investor sentiment in the long run or the short run. This paper demonstrates that the effects of U.S. policies on financial market players and investors in Turkey are not negligible.

Keywords:

Trade Policy Uncertainty, NARDL, Stock Market, Bank Loans, Investor Sentiment,

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