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TÜRKIYE’NIN İHRACATI VE İTHALATI ARASINDA ASİMETRİK BİR İLİŞKİ VAR MIDIR?: AMPİRİK KANITLAR

Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin ithalat ve ihracat malları arasında, 1960:1-2019:8 periyodu için asimetrik bir ilişki olup olmadığını bulmayı amaçlamaktadır. Aylık veri kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlara göre, ithalat ve ihracat arasında doğrusal olmayan bir bağlantı bulunmaktadır. Bu sebeple, herhangi bir asimetrik ilişkiyi tespit etmek için NARDL metodu kullanılmıştır. Seriler arasında uzun dönemli asimetrik ilişki bulunduğu saptanmasına rağmen, kısa dönemde bu ilişkinin varlığı tespit edilememiştir. Türkiye’nin ihracatında gerçekleşen %1’lik bir artış, ithalatında %0.746’lık bir yükselmeyle sonuçlanmaktadır. Diğer yandan, ihracatta oluşan %1’lik bir düşüş, ithalatı %0.669 oranında azaltmaktadır. Model diagnostik testleri otokorelasyon, değişen varyans (heteroskedasticity) ve yanlış model belirlenmesi (misspesification) gibi sorunların bulunmadığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İhracat, İthalat, NARDL, Asimetri

IS THERE AN ASYMMETRIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS IN TURKEY?: AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

This study tries to find out if there is an asymmetric relationship between the value of imported goods and the value of the exported goods in Turkey for the monthly periods of 1960:1-2019:8. According to empirical results, the linkage between imports and exports is nonlinear. Thus, NARDL approach is conducted in order to determine the existence of any asymmetric relationship. It is found that there is an asymmetric relationship between the series in the long run but not in the short run. 1% increase in the exports results in a 0.746% increase in the imports of Turkey. On the other hand, when the exports decrease by 1%, it decreases the imports by 0.669% in Turkey. Model diagnostic tests show no autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity or misspecification problems in the model.

Keywords:

Exports, Imports, NARDL, Asymmetry,

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