TÜRKİYE’DE UYGULANAN PARA ve MALİYE POLİTİKALARININ İMALAT SANAYİİ İSTİHDAMI ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİNİN ANALİZİ1 (2009:01-2019:10)

Bu makale, para ve maliye politikasının imalat sanayii istihdam eğilimini etkileyip etkilemeyeceğini araştırmaktadır. 2009:01-2019:10 dönemini aylık verilerle kapsayan makale VAR analizi ile konuyu açıklamaya çalışmaktadır. Çalışmada imalat sanayii istihdam rakamları ile, para politikası M1 Para Arzı, M2 Para Arzı, Vadeli Mevduat Toplamı ile, maliye politikası Toplam Vergi Gelirleri, Dolaylı ve Dolaysız Vergiler tarafından temsil edilmektedir. Çalışmada ekonometrik model olarak çift logaritmik model kullanılmıştır. Analizler Gretl programında gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analizde ADF Birim-Kök Testi, gecikme uzunluğu, Eşbütünleşme Testi, Etki –Tepki Analizi, Varyans Ayrıştırması ve Birim Çembere Göre Var Ters Kökleri testleri yapılmıştır. Çalışma sonunda; para politikasını temsilen ele alınan değişkenlerin imalat sanayii istihdamına etkisinin kısa ve uzun döneme göre farklılık gösterdiği, maliye politikasını temsilen modele dahil edilen değişkenlerden sadece dolaylı vergilerin imalat sanayii istihdamını etkilediği ortaya çıkmıştır.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS ON EMPLOYMENT OF IN THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES APPLIED IN TURKEY (2009:01-2019:10)

This study investigates whether monetary and fiscal policy can affect manufacturing industry employment tendency. 2009: 01-2019: 10 the article covers the period with monthly data and tries to explain the issue with VAR analysis. In this study, manufacturing industry employment figures and monetary policy were represented by M1 Money Supply, M2 Money Supply, Total Time Deposit, and fiscal policy by Total Tax Revenues, Indirect and Direct Taxes. In this study, double logarithmic model was used as econometric model. The analyzes were performed in Gretl program. In the analysis, ADF UnitRoot Test, delay length, Cointegration Test, Impact-Response Analysis, Variance Decomposition and Reverse Roots by Unit Circle were performed. At the end of the study; It was found out that the effects of the variables considered as representative of monetary policy on manufacturing industry employment differed according to the short and long term, and only indirect taxes among the variables included in the model representing fiscal policy affected the manufacturing industry employment.

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