Cevat GERNİ, M. Kemal DEĞER, Ö. Selçuk EMSEN, Ayşen Hiç GENCER

9996

Relationship between Import-Led Exports and Economic Growth: The Experience of Turkey (1980-2008)

Relationship between Import-Led Exports and Economic Growth: The Experience of Turkey (1980-2008)

This paper, prepared in the framework of Feder model (1982) extended by taking account of recent relevant literature, analyzes the causality between exports, imports and economic growth in Turkey. According to regression results, it is found that exports are a significant determinant of economic growth. But, when adding imports to the model, the effects of exports become statistically insignificant. This finding can be interpreted as follows: in the case of Turkey, the export-led growth process has stemmed from imports. The above findings also are supported by the results of Toda-Yamamoto causality test using annual and monthly data. The empirical results show that in Turkey exports and accordingly economic growth are significantly affected by imports of intermediate and investment goods. The high interest - low exchange rate policy implemented in recent years in the context of inflation targeting policy has supported this process, which has its limits.
Keywords:

International Trade, Import-Led Exports, Economic Growth, Panel Data Analysis,

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