Türkiye’de Hane Halkları Elektrik Talebininin Belirleyicileri: Sıralı Logit Yaklaşımı

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de hane halklarının elektrik enerjisi tüketimini etkileyen faktörler araştırılmıştır. Hanenin anket ayındaki elektrik fatura giderinin, hane halkına ait konut özelliklerinin, hane halkı yapısının ve gelirinin elektrik talebini belirleyen etkenler olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca bahsedilen bu etkenlerin marjinal etkileri hesaplanmıştır. Çalışmada TUİK tarafından yayınlanan Türkiye Hane Halkı Bütçe Anketi 2008 verileri kullanılmış ve sıralı logit modeli uygulanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Hane Halkı Tüketimi, Elektrik Talebi, Sıralı Logit Tahmini

Determinants of the Household Electricity Demand in Turkey: Ordered Logit Approach

In this study, the factors effecting the electricity consumption of households in Turkey are examined. Monthly electricity cost of the household, characteristics of the house, the structure of the household and its income are identified to be the factors that determine the demand for the electricity. Moreover, marginal effects of those mentioned factors are calculated. In the study, Turkish Household Budget Survey 2008 data published by Turkish Statistics Institute are used, and ordered logit model is employed

Keywords:

Household Consumption, Electricity Demand, Ordered Logit Estimation,

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Ek-2 : Sınıf 1 x 2-4 için PPOM Modeli STATA Çıktısı Elektrik Tüketimi Coef. Prob rgelir 2460906 KON_ALAN 1756351 000 KONUTTIP MULKIYET 2075436 HHB 1705788 000 KIRKNTKD 4617754 YAS 0320065 004 OTUR_SUR .1502913 006 DOG_GAZ 1640883 065 SAUNA 333048 018 SICAKSU 2360211 002 BILGISAY TELEVIZ LCDTELE UYDUANT 13073 BUZDOLAB DERINDON BULASIK M_FIRIN 2637473 CAMASIR 3136055 KLIMA _cons 2.515531
Ek 3. Sınıf 1-2 x 3-4 için PPOM Modeli STATA Çıktısı elektrik Coef. P>z rgelir 15261 000 KON_ALAN 1756351 000 KONUTTIP 1394829 026 MULKIYET 2075436 000 HHB 1705788 KIRKNTKD 4617754 000 YAS 0320065 004 OTUR_SUR .1502913 DOG_GAZ .2109745 004 SAUNA 333048 SICAKSU 2360211 002 BILGISAY 4187124 TELEVIZ 0970148 021 LCDTELE 3382304 001 UYDUANT 13073 005 BUZDOLAB 4796257 005 DERINDON 5442754 000 BULASIK 3353438 000 M_FIRIN 2637473 CAMASIR 3136055 006 KLIMA _cons 4.500163
Ek 4. Sınıf 1-3 x 4 için PPOM Modeli STATA Çıktısı elektrik Coef. P>z rgelir KON_ALAN KONUTTIP MULKIYET 2075436 HHB KIRKNTKD YAS OTUR_SUR .1502913 DOG_GAZ .9103203 SAUNA SICAKSU 2360211 BILGISAY 0949597 383 TELEVIZ 0970148 021 LCDTELE 3382304 001 UYDUANT 13073 005 BUZDOLAB 4796257 005 DERINDON 5442754 000 BULASIK 3353438 000 M_FIRIN 2637473 002 CAMASIR 3136055 006 KLIMA 4334744 _cons 6.61258 000