Using systematic review and meta-analysis in order to obtain different empirical-informative prior for bayesian binomial proportion

The Bayesian approach provides a direct and useful inference about parameters better so than the frequentist (likelihood-only based) approach. This is because Bayesian approach uses both sources of information: prior information and likelihood. The eliciting of prior information is important because of a visible impact on the posterior inference. The motivation of this study is to avoid the subjectivity in obtaining informative prior. In order to elicit informative priors, this study proposed using systematic reviews, and the meta-analysis which is a statistical synthesis of the results from a series of empirical studies. Even though the systematic review and meta-analysis may include publication bias, may give more objective information from expert opinion due to the publishing process. This study also aimed to present the impact of domestic information obtained from domestic systematic reviews and meta-analysis on estimation proportion. Systematic reviews and meta-analysis of proportion used in order to obtain discrete, histogram, and conjugate (Beta) informative priors. The effectiveness of the Bayesian inference of proposed different informative prior distributions compared within and between (all-domestic) prior distribution. The results revealed that the discrete and histogram priors were more effective than the conjugate and non-informative priors. On the other hand, the importance of using systematic reviews and meta-analysis for domestic studies was observed.

Keywords:

Bayes, informative prior, discrete, Beta, histogram, proportion energy drink,

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