Recep Emre ERİÇOK

13089

KÜRESEL EKONOMİK YAVAŞLAMA: RİSKLER, BELİRSİZLİKLER VE TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNE ETKİLERİ

Günümüzde, küresel ekonomi belirgin ve eş zamanlı bir yavaşlama içerisindedir. Başta ticaret savaşları, jeopolitik gerginlikler ve Brexit belirsizliği olmak üzere pek çok faktörün etkisiyle 2019 yılında küresel kriz sonrası en düşük büyüme gerçekleşmiştir. Ayrıca, küresel ekonomik yavaşlama tüm önemli ekonomilere yayılmış durumdadır. Gelişmiş ekonomilerin yanı sıra gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde de yavaşlama eğilimi dikkat çekicidir. 2020 yılına iyimser beklentilerle başlansa da koronavirüs salgını başta olmak üzere pek çok risk ve belirsizlik nedeniyle küresel ekonomik büyüme oldukça kırılgan bir görünüme sahiptir. Küresel ekonomik sorunların çözümünde ticaret engellerinin gevşetilmesi, jeopolitik gerginliklerin ve politika belirsizliklerinin azaltılması gerekmektedir. Bu bağlamda, küresel koordinasyon ve işbirliğinin güçlendirilmesi büyük önem taşımaktadır. Küresel kriz sonrasında yoğun şekilde uygulanan para politikalarının yanı sıra kısa vadede talebin desteklenmesi ve orta vadede kapsayıcı büyüme potansiyelinin artırılması için maliye politikaları ve yapısal politikaların daha aktif şekilde kullanılması gerekmektedir
Anahtar Kelimeler:

Küresel Ekonomik Yavaşlama, Küresel Riskler ve Belirsizlikler, Türkiye Ekonomisi, Para Politikası, Maliye Politikası

THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN: RISKS, UNCERTAINTIES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Today the global economy is undergoing a significant and simultaneous slowdown. Following the global crisis, the lowest growth rate was recorded in 2019 due to the effects of many factors including trade wars, geopolitical tensions and Brexit uncertainty. Moreover, the global economic slowdown has spread to all major economies. The slowdown trend in the emerging economies as well as the developed ones is remarkable. Although the year 2020 started with optimistic expectations, global economic growth has a very fragile appearance due to many risks and uncertainties, especially the coronavirus epidemic. As a solution to global economic problems, trade barriers should be relaxed and geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties should be reduced. In this context, strengthening global coordination and cooperation is important. In addition to monetary policies implemented intensively after the global crisis, fiscal policies and structural policies should be used more actively to support the demand in the short term and to increase the inclusive growth potential in the medium term. In this study conducted to examine the global economic slowdown, risks, uncertainties and their effects on the Turkish Economy, first the transition process from globalization to global slowdown was analysed. Also, the historical development of the globalization, the current level it reached and the factors determining change were addressed. Then, the developments in the Turkish Economy and the effects of the global risks and uncertainties were examined by clarifying the main trends about the global economic slowdown, risks and uncertainties. Finally, some policy suggestions on global risks and uncertainties were provided. The results of the study show that Turkey is significantly affected by the developments in the global economy besides its own structural problems. In this context, it is crucial to make trust and stability permanent and to focus on structural reforms to support the sustainable growth based on the total factor productivity.
Keywords:

Global Economic Slowdown, Global Risks and Uncertainties, Turkish Economy, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy,

PDF

___

  • Bakas, Adjiedj (2013), “The State of Tomorow”, https://www.bakas.nl/webshop/index. php?route=product/product&path=17&product_id=58 (Erişim: 02.12.2019).
  • Caldara, Dario, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, Andrea Raffo, (2019), “The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty”, International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Number 1256, September, https://www.federalreserve. gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1256.pdf (Erişim: 20.02.2020).
  • Constantinescu, Cristina, Aaditya Mattoo, Michele Ruta (2015), “The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?”, IMF Working Paper, WP/15/6, January, s. 1-44, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/TheGlobal-Trade-Slowdown-Cyclical-or-Structural-42609 (Erişim: 04.12.2019).
  • FED (The Federal Reserve System-The Central Bank of the United States) (2020a), The Federal Reserve Press Release, FOMC (The Federal Open Market Committee) Statement Meeting, March 3, https://www.federalreserve.gov/ monetarypolicy/files/monetary20200303a1.pdf (Erişim: 12.03.2020).
  • FED (The Federal Reserve System-The Central Bank of the United States) (2020b), The Federal Reserve Press Release, FOMC (The Federal Open Market Committee) Statement Meeting, March 15, https://www. federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20200315a1.pdf (Erişim: 16.03.2020).
  • Foroohar, Rana (2020), “Coronavirus will hit global growth”, Financial Times, February 2, https://www.ft.com/content/8be84270-4430-11ea-a43ac4b328d9061c (Erişim: 12.03.2020).
  • Georgieva, Kristalina (2019), “Transcript of International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva’s Opening Press Conference, 2019 Annual Meetings”, October 17, https://www.imf.org/en/News/ Articles/2019/10/17/tr101719-transcript-managing-director-kristalinageorgieva-press-conference-2019-annual-meetings (Erişim: 07.01.2020).
  • Georgieva, Kristalina (2020a), “Finding Solid Footing for the Global Economy”, February 19, https://blogs.imf.org/2020/02/19/finding-solid-footingfor-the-global-economy/ (Erişim: 12.03.2020).
  • Georgieva, Kristalina (2020b), “IMF Makes Available $50 Billion to Help Address Coronavirus”, March 4, https://www.imf.org/en/News/ Articles/2020/03/04/sp030420-imf-makes-available-50-billion-to-helpaddress-coronavirus (Erişim: 12.03.2020).
  • Gopinath, Gita (2019), “The World Economy: Synchronized Slowdown, Precarious Outlook”, October 15, https://blogs.imf.org/2019/10/15/ the-world-economy-synchronized-slowdown-precarious-outlook/ (Erişim: 07.01.2020).
  • Gopinath, Gita (2020), “Tentative Stabilization, Sluggish Recovery?”, January 20, https://blogs.imf.org/2020/01/20/tentative-stabilization-sluggishrecovery/ (Erişim: 22.01.2020).
  • Gun, Durukal, Christian Keller, Sree Kochugovindan, Tomasz Wieladek (2017), “The end of globalisation as we know it?”, https://www.investmentbank. barclays.com/our-insights/the-end-of-globalisation-as-we-know-it.html (Erişim: 04.12.2019).
  • Guttal, Shalmali (2007), “Globalisation”, Journal Development in Practice, Volume 17, Issue 4-5, pp. 523-531, https://www.tandfonline.com/ doi/full/10.1080/09614520701469492?scroll=top&needAccess=true (Erişim: 02.12.2019).
  • Gürlesel, Can Fuat (2019), “Dünya ekonomisinde 2020 beklentileri”, İstanbul Ticaret Gazetesi, 6 Aralık, https://www.itohaber.com/koseyazisi/211017/ dunya_ekonomisinde_2020_beklentileri.html (Erişim: 18.12.2019).
  • Gürlesel, Can Fuat (2020), “AB karbon vergisi ticareti kökten değiştirecek”, İstanbul Ticaret Gazetesi, 17 Ocak, https://www.itohaber.com/ koseyazisi/211223/ab_karbon_vergisi_ticareti_kokten_degistirecek.html (Erişim: 10.02.2020).
  • Handley, Kyle, Nuno Limão (2017), “Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States”, American Economic Review, September, Vol. 107, No. 9, pp. 2731-2783. https://www.aeaweb. org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/aer.20141419 (Erişim: 06.12.2019).
  • IIF (The Institute of International Finance) (2020), “January 2020 Global Debt Monitor: Sustainability Matters”, January 13, https://www.iif.com/Research/ Capital-Flows-and-Debt/Global-Debt-Monitor (Erişim: 20.02.2020).
  • IMF (The International Monetary Fund) (2002), “Globalization: The Story Behind the Numbers”, Finance & Development, March, Vol. 39, No. 1, https://www. imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2002/03/picture.htm (Erişim: 04.12.2019).
  • IMF (The International Monetary Fund) (2008), “Globalization: A Brief Overview”, IMF Issues Brief, Issue 02/08, May, pp. 1-8, https://www.imf.org/external/ np/exr/ib/2008/pdf/053008.pdf (Erişim: 06.01.2020).
  • IMF (The International Monetary Fund) (2019a), “Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers”, World Economic Outlook, October, https://www. imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2019/October/English/text. ashx?la=en (Erişim: 17.12.2019).
  • IMF (The International Monetary Fund) (2019b), World Economic Outlook Database, October, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/ weodata/index.aspx (Erişim: 17.12.2019).
  • IMF (The International Monetary Fund) (2020), “Tentative Stabilization, Sluggish Recovery?”, World Economic Outlook Update, January, https://www.imf. org/~/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2020/January/English/text. ashx?la=en (Erişim: 22.01.2020).
  • Kose, M. Ayhan, Peter Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, Naotaka Sugawara (2020), Global Waves of Debt: Causes and Consequences, Advance Edition, The World Bank, Washington DC, https://openknowledge.worldbank. org/bitstream/handle/10986/32809/9781464815454.pdf (Erişim: 09.01.2020).
  • Kupelian, Barret (2020), “Predictions for 2020: “Slowbalisation” is the new globalisation”, PWC, Global Economy Watch, January, https://www. pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/global-economy-watch/assets/pdfs/ predictions-2020.pdf (Erişim: 09.01.2020).
  • Lund, Susan, James Manyika, Jonathan Woetzel, Jacques Bughin, Mekala Krishnan, Jeongmin Seong, Mac Muir (2019), Globalization in Transition: The Future of Trade and Value Chains, January, McKinsey Global Institute, https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Featured%20Insights/ Innovation/Globalization%20in%20transition%20The%20future%20of%20 trade%20and%20value%20chains/MGI-Globalization%20in%20transitionThe-future-of-trade-and-value-chains-Full-report.ashx (Erişim: 04.12.2019).
  • McKinsey&Company (2020), “Coronavirus COVID-19: Facts and Insights”, February 28, https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20 Functions/Risk/Our%20Insights/COVID%2019%20Implications%20for%20 business/COVID-19-Facts-and-Insights-February-28-2020-McKinsey-vF.ashx (Erişim: 05.03.2020).
  • O’Brien, Fergal (2020), “$170 Billion and Counting: The Cost of Brexit for the U.K.”, 10 Ocak, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/ articles/2020-01-10/-170-billion-and-counting-the-cost-of-brexit-for-theu-k (Erişim: 25.02.2020).
  • OECD (The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) (2019), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 2, No. 106, OECD Publishing, November, Paris, https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/ oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2019-issue-2_9b89401b-en#page1 (Erişim: 07.01.2020).
  • OECD (The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) (2020), “Coronavirus: The World Economy at Risk”, OECD Interim Economic Assessment, 2 March, https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/7969896ben.f?expires=1583397562&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=00BA09329 AA938A68268BE7C0FB6EF00 (Erişim: 05.03.2020).
  • TCHMB (T.C. Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığı) (2019), “Yeni Ekonomi Programı 2020-2022” Eylül, https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2019/10/YepEyl%C3%BCl-1.pdf (Erişim: 05.03.2020).
  • TEPAV (Türkiye Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Vakfı) (2020), “Brexit sonrasında Türkiye’nin İngiltere ile ticareti gümrük vergilerindeki değişikliklerden nasıl etkilenebilir?: Özel Sektör için Ürün Bazlı Brexit Rehberi”, Şubat, Raporu Hazırlayanlar: Ayşegül Taşöz Düşündere, M. Sait Akman, Hakan Özkavukçu, https://www.tepav.org.tr/upload/files/1581330901-0.TEPAV_ Brexit_Raporu.pdf (Erişim: 05.03.2020).
  • The Economist (2019), “Slowbalisation: the future of global commerce”, January 26th-February 1st.
  • The University of Oxford, Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/ grapher/globalization-over-5-centuries (Erişim: 20.02.2020).
  • The World Bank (2019), A Decade After the Global Recession: Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies, Editors: M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge, Worldbank Publications, Washington DC, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/ handle/10986/32641/167273.pdf (Erişim: 12.12.2019).
  • The World Bank (2020), Global Economic Prospects: Slow Growth, Policy Challenges, January, Washington DC, https://openknowledge. worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/33044/9781464814693. pdf (Erişim: 09.01.2020).
  • TÜİK (Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu), Dış Ticaret İstatistikleri, https://www.tuik.gov.tr (Erişim: 05.03.2020).
  • TÜİK (Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu), Millî Gelir İstatistikleri, https://www.tuik.gov.tr (Erişim: 05.03.2020).
  • TÜSİAD (Türk Sanayicileri ve İş İnsanları Derneği) (2020), “2020 Yılına Girerken Türkiye ve Dünya Ekonomisi”, Ekonomik Araştırmalar Bölümü, Şubat, Yayın No: TÜSİAD-T/2020-02/612, https://tusiad.org/tr/yayinlar/ raporlar/item/10526-2020-yilina-girerken-turkiye-ve-dunya-ekonomisi (Erişim: 10.02.2020).
  • Tyson, Laura, Susan Lund (2017), “Adapting to the new globalization”, February 8, https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/in-the-news/adapting-to-thenew-globalization (Erişim: 06.12.2019).
  • UN (The United Nations) (2020), World Economic Situation and Prospects 2020, The United Nations, New York, https://www.un.org/development/desa/ dpad/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/WESP2020_FullReport.pdf (Erişim: 12.02.2020).
  • WEF (The World Economic Forum) (2020), The Global Risks Report 2020, The World Economic Forum, Insight Report, 15th Edition, http:// www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risk_Report_2020.pdf (Erişim: 20.02.2020).
  • Wolf, Martin (2014), “Shaping Globalization”, Finance & Development, September, Vol. 51, No. 3, pp. 22-25, https://www.imf.org/external/ pubs/ft/fandd/2014/09/pdf/wolf.pdf (Erişim: 10.01.2020).
Sayıştay Dergisi-Cover
  • ISSN: 1300-1981
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 1990
  • Yayıncı: T.C. Sayıştay Başkanlığı
Arşiv
Sayıdaki Diğer Makaleler

Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ile Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki İlişki: Frekans Alanda Asimetrik Testinden Kanıtlar

Veli YILANCI, Mahmut Ünsal ŞAŞMAZ, Ömer Faruk ÖZTÜRK

INTOSAI GELİŞTİRME GİRİŞİMİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR KALKINMA HEDEFLERİ DENETİM MODELİ ISAM

Yusuf SÜNBÜL

KÜRESEL EKONOMİK YAVAŞLAMA: RİSKLER, BELİRSİZLİKLER VE TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNE ETKİLERİ

Recep Emre ERİÇOK

YENİ DÖNEMDE YÜKSELEN KORUMACILIK EĞİLİMİ VE KÜRESELLEŞMENİN GELECEĞİ

Orhan CENGİZ, Erdem Selman DEVELİ

GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERDE VERGİ AHLAKI: OECD RAPORU ÇERÇEVESİNDE BİR DEĞERLENDİRME

Ali ÇELİKKAYA

DEVLET BÜTÇESİNDE YILSONU HARCAMA ARTIŞI: ARALIK ATEŞİ OLGUSU VE TÜRKİYE AÇISINDAN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Halis KIRAL, Mevza KURTULMUŞLAR