Using PSO and Genetic Algorithms to Optimize ANFIS Model for Forecasting Uganda’s Net Electricity Consumption

Uganda seeks to transform its society from a peasant to a modern and largely urban society by the year 2040. To achieve this, electricity as a form of modern and clean energy has been identified as a driving force for all the sectors of the economy. For this reason, electricity consumption forecasts that are realistic and accurate are key inputs to policy making and investment decisions for developing Uganda’s electricity sector. In this study, we present an ANFIS long-term electricity forecasting model that is easy to interpret. We use the model to forecast Uganda’s electricity consumption. The ANFIS model takes population, gross domestic product, number of subscribers and average electricity price as input variables and electricity consumption as the output. We use particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize the parameters of the model. A forecast accuracy of 94.34% is achieved for GA-ANFIS, while 90.88% accuracy is achieved for PSO-ANFIS as compared to 87.79% for multivariate linear regression (MLR) model. Comparison with official forecasts made by Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (MEMD) revealed low forecast errors.Keywords: Electricity consumption forecasting, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, Genetic algorithm, Particle swarm optimization algorithm, Uganda.

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