Sakarya ili için olasılığa dayalı sismik tehlike analizi

Bu çalışmada, Sakarya ilini etkileyen en güncel aktif deprem kaynakları etkisinde, pik yer ivmesine ait yıllık aşılma oranları, sismik tehlike eğrisi aracılığıyla hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıklaştırma analizi yapılarak, şehir merkezinde en çok etki oluşturabilecek olası fay uzaklıkları ve deprem büyüklükleri bulunmuştur. Bununla birlikte, bölgeye ait pik yer ivmesi, periyodu 0.2s ve 1.0s olan spektrum ivmelerinin, 50 yılda %10 ve %2 aşılma ihtimaline göre sismik tehlike haritaları elde edilmiştir. Tepki ivme spektrumundaki ivme değerleri, yönetmelik ile kıyaslandığında ortalama her periyod için 1.5-2 katı daha yüksek ivme değerleri elde edildiği görülmüştür.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the city of Sakarya

In this study, the probability of exceedance of peak ground acceleration are calculated by seismic hazard curves after compiling active faults around Sakarya province. Possible fault distances and earthquake magnitudes that affect the city center most, are determined by deaggregation analysis. In addition seismic hazard maps are derived for PGA and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s in terms of exceedance of 10% and 2% in 50 years. Compered the design spectrum, calculated acceleration response spectrum gave 1.5 to 2 times higher in average for all periods

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