Central Asian Guarantee Fund as an institution to support and develop mutual trade between Central Asian countries
This article examines factors affecting trade among Central Asian countries and assesses the trade potential of the region. Using open data, a gravity model is used to estimate Central Asian countries' trade over the past 2-3 years. The results obtained from the mathematical gravity model showed the presence of the trade potential between the Central Asian countries. According to the results, GDP of the exporting and importing country has a positive impact on trade, while distance has a negative impact. The trade potential shows the opportunities for economic growth and the development of entrepreneurship. Lower-middle-income countries, being less developed economies even by Central Asian standards, can only reduce poverty and become more developed by increasing their trade with neighboring Central Asian countries. At the same time, this article proposes a tool for realizing trade potential - the Central Asian Guarantee Fund. This institution will aim to increase the level of trade between countries by providing private sector access to finance, expand trade finance instruments, and support national guarantee funds. Thus, the article can help Central Asian governments formulate policies to expand regional trade in the face of geopolitical tensions. This article is the first experience of applying the gravity model to Central Asian countries in order to estimate trade potential, and to realize it with the help of the Central Asian Guarantee Fund.
Anahtar Kelimeler:
Trade, gravity model, Central Asia, Central Asian Guarantee Fund, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan
Central Asian Guarantee Fund as an institution to support and develop mutual trade between Central Asian countries
This article examines factors affecting trade among Central Asian countries and assesses the trade potential of the region. Using open data, a gravity model is used to estimate Central Asian countries' trade over the past 2-3 years. The results obtained from the mathematical gravity model showed the presence of the trade potential between the Central Asian countries. According to the results, GDP of the exporting and importing country has a positive impact on trade, while distance has a negative impact. The trade potential shows the opportunities for economic growth and the development of entrepreneurship. Lower-middle-income countries, being less developed economies even by Central Asian standards, can only reduce poverty and become more developed by increasing their trade with neighboring Central Asian countries. At the same time, this article proposes a tool for realizing trade potential - the Central Asian Guarantee Fund. This institution will aim to increase the level of trade between countries by providing private sector access to finance, expand trade finance instruments, and support national guarantee funds. Thus, the article can help Central Asian governments formulate policies to expand regional trade in the face of geopolitical tensions. This article is the first experience of applying the gravity model to Central Asian countries in order to estimate trade potential, and to realize it with the help of the Central Asian Guarantee Fund.
Keywords:
Trade, gravity model, Central Asia, Central Asian Guarantee Fund, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
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- ISSN: 1694-5158
- Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
- Başlangıç: 1999
- Yayıncı: Kırgızistan Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi
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