SERMAYE HAREKETLERİNİN VE SERMAYE PİYASALARININ EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEDEKİ ROLÜ: GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERİN BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Amaç – Gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik yabancı sermaye hareketleri ve kredi genişlemesinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi, -iş döngüsü ve finansal krizlere de neden olduğu iddiasıyla- tartışmalıdır. Bu çalışmada, söz konusu tartışmaya cevap aramak amacıyla sermaye hareketleri ve kredi büyüklüğünün ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi sorgulanmıştır. Yöntem – Gelişmekte olan seçilmiş ekonomilerin 2005 – 2015 yılları arasındaki verileri panel veri analizi yöntemi ile incelenmiştir. Bulgular- Analiz sonuçlarına göre, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif etkisi bulunurken, portföy yatırımları ile ekonomik büyüme arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ilişki bulunamamıştır. Finansal sektör tarafından sağlanan krediler, cari açık ve enflasyonun ekonomik büyüme ile ilişkisinin olmadığı görülürken, döviz kuru ve işsizliğin ekonomik büyüme ile negatif ilişkili olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Sonuç- Gelişmekte olan ülkelere doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar olarak gelen sermaye hareketlerinin ekonomik büyümeye katkı sağladığı, ancak portföy yatırımlarının gelişmekte olan ekonomilerin büyümesine olumlu ya da olumsuz etkisinin olmadığı sonucu elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca yurtiçi kredilerdeki artışın da ekonomik büyümeye etkisinin olmadığı görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

gelişmekte olan ülkeler, ekonomik büyüme, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları, portföy yatırımları

THE ROLE OF CAPITAL MOVEMENTS AND CAPITAL MARKETS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Purpose - The effects of foreign capital inflows and credit expansion on economic growth of developing countries are controversial because it is claimed that they cause business cycle and financial crises. In order to look for answers to the discussion, the impacts of foreign capital flows and credit size on economic growth are questioned in this paper. Methodology - The data of selected developing economies over the period between 2005 and 2015 are investigated by panel data analysis. Findings - According to the results of analysis, while foreign direct investment is statistically significant and has a positive impact on economic growth, there isn’t a significant relation between portfolio investment and economic growth. Domestic credit provided by financial sector, current account deficit and inflation have not significant impact on economic growth. On the other hand, foreign exchange rate and unemployment are negatively associated with economic growth. Conclusion - This study finds that foreign direct investment increases economic growth in developing countries, but portfolio investment does not have any impact on economic growth. In addition, increase in domestic credit size is not associated with economic growth in developing countries.

Keywords:

developing countries, economic growth, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment,

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