THE COVID 19 EFFECT ON MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

Purpose- From the moment covid 19 started to spread in the world, its effects began to be seen simultaneously in financial markets and economy.The purpose of this study is to observe Covid 19 effect on EURO/USD,gold ,oil and wheat prices. Methodology- The database includes the Daily prices of EUR/USD, wheat ,gold , brent oil prices and COVİD 19 numbers between the period of 31.12.2019-04.09.2020 which consist of 180 daily data. Natural logaritm for each indicator is used. First, the stationarity of the series were analyzed with ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller) unit root test. Lag lengths are determined. Interactions between the series were analyzed by theARDL, Impulse- Response Function and Variance Decomposition method. Findings- The series are found out to not to be stationary as a result of Unit root test.After, the lag length criteria using VAR models were checked and this lag length criteria for them were determined as one . According to the ARDL test result, cointegration could not be found between our data. Impulse response graphs indicate that all variables respond in a reducing way to reducing shocks occurred in each indicator. Shocks have lost their effect on average in 2 days. Conclusion- The results indicate that the effect of COVID 19 on EUR/USD , gold , brent oil and wheat prices do not have a strong effect. The results may be beneficial for only literatüre.

Keywords:

Covid-19, pandemic, ARDL test, stationary test impulse-response function, variance decomposition,

PDF

___

Albulescu,C., .2020.Corona Virus And Financial Volatility: 40 Days Of Fasting And Fear. SSRN Accessed April 18, 2020. Http://Dx.Doi.Org/10.2139/Ssrn.3553452.
AL-Awadhi, A.M., Al-Saifi, K., Al-Awadhi,A., Alhamadi, S.,2 020. Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns. J.Behav. Exp. Finance, 100326
Asmelash and Cooper, 2020L. Asmelash, A. CooperNearly 80% of hotel rooms in the US are empty, according to new data CNN (2020)
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/08/us/hotel-rooms-industry-coronavirus-trnd/index.htm Google Scholar
Baldwin, R., & Tomiura, E. 2020. Thinking ahead about the trade impact of COVİD-19. Economics in the Time of COVİD-19, 59.
Elgin, C., Basbug, G., Yalaman, A., 2020. Economic policy responses to a pandemic: developing the COVID-19 economic stimulus index. Covid Econ., Vetted Real Time Papers 3, 40–53.
McKibbin, W. J., & Fernando, R. 2020. The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios.
Ramelli,S.,And A.F.Wagner. 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions To COVID-19."Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series (SSRN) 2012. Accessed April 21,2020. Doi: Https://Dx.Doi.Org/10.2139/Ssrn.3550274
Takahashi, H., And Y .Kazuo.2 020."When Japanese Stock Market Meets Covid-19: Impact Of Ownership, Trading, Esg, And Liquidity Channels." Accessed April 21. Doi:Https://Dx.Doi.Org/10.2139/Ssrn.3577424
Tarı, Recep (2010), Ekonometri, Umuttepe Yayınları, Genişletilmiş 6. Baskı, s.465
Tucker, H. (2020).Coronavirus Bankruptcy Tracker: These Major Companies Are Failing Amid The Shutdown.Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/hanktucker/2020/05/03/
Yang,Yongshi,Peng,Fujun,Wang,Runsheng,Guan,Kai,Jiang,Taijiao,Xu,Guogang,Sun,Jinlyu,Chang,Christopher,2020. The Deadly Coronaviruses: The 2003 SARS Pandemic And The 2020 Novel Corona Virus Epidemic In China. J. Autoimm. 109.
Zeren and Hızarcı .2020 . The Impact Of Covıd-19 Coronavırus On Stock Markets: Evıdence From Selected Countrıes. MUFİDER, 3, 1 (2020), 78 – 84