Containing the Iranian Nuclear Crisis: The Useful Precedent of a Fuel Swap
The nuclear fuel swap that was proposed by the USA in October 2009, accepted by Iran, then rejected, and finally accepted again under conditions rejected by the West, was never a solution to the nuclear crisis. Tangential to the main issues, the deal offered only a temporary respite from the threat posed by Iran’s sensitive nuclear programs. Intended as a confidencebuilding measure, the deal has only sown more suspicion, and the attempt in May 2010 by Brazil and Turkey to renew the agreement served to widen the circle of distrust. Yet the precedent of sending Iranian enriched uranium out of the country and thereby reducing its stockpile still holds promise. The question is whether or not Iran is determined to have a nuclearweapons capability. Even if it is, containment and deterrence policies may help to keep that capability latent, but unrestricted growth of Iran’s enrichment program could still trigger military action
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- Portions of this paper draw on the author’s article on “Iran: The Fragile Promise of the Fuel-Swap Plan”, Survival, Vol.52, No. 3 (June–July 2010), pp. 67–94.
- In theory, a bomb could be made using 20% HEU, but it would be impractically large, weighing at least 400kg. Weapons designers prefer to use HEU enriched to over 90%, which is considered weapons grade.
- IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Report by the Director General”, GOV/2003/75, 10 November 2003, pp. 26–28.
- “Ahmadinejad: Iran Ready to Buy N. Fuel from US”, Fars News Agency, at http://english.farsnews. com/newstext.php?nn=8807151645 [last visited 13 October 2010].
- Iran commonly refers to the enrichment level as 20%, which is the rounded-up figure (from 19.75%) used throughout much of the rest of this article.
- IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Report by the Director General”, GOV/2010/46, 6 September 2010, p. 7; The equipment is for the conversion of 20% enriched UF6 to U3O8.
- Thomas Erdbrink and William Branigan, “In Iran, Nuclear Issue is also a Medical One”, Washington Post, 20 December 2009.
- See, Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, Weapons of Terror: Freeing the World of Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Arms, (June 2006), p. 72.
- A suggestion along these lines was made in 2008 by Bruce Riedel and Gary Samore (who would soon become a special assistant to President Obama on the National Security Council staff). See, “Managing Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East”, in Richard N. Haass and Martin S. Indyk (eds.), Restoring The Balance: A Middle East Strategy For The Next President, Washington DC, Brookings Institution Press, 2008, p. 107.
- Borzou Daragahi, “U.S., Iran Move Closer to Nuclear Deal”, Los Angeles Times, 22 October 2009.
- “Remarks by EUHR Solana Following Meeting with Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Jalili”, at http://www.europa-eu-un.org/articles/fr/article_9050_fr.htm [last visited 11 October 2010].
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- Julian Borger, “Hopes Rise of End to Impasse as Iran Gets Two Days to Back Nuclear Deal”, Guardian, 12 October 2009.
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- Gareth Porter, “US–Iran Talks: The Road to Diplomatic Failure”, at http://www.commondreams.org/ view/2009/12/12-4 [last visited 11 October 2010]. 16 Ibid.
- Robert F. Worth, “Iran Avows Willingness to Swap Some Uranium”, New York Times, 13 December 2009.
- As reported by Kaveh L. Afrasiabi, “Iran Launches New Phase in Nuclear Crisis”, Asia Times, 5 February 2010.
- IAEA, “The Text of the Agreement Between Iran and the Agency for the Application of Safeguards in Connection with the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons”, INFCIRC/214, at http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc214.pdf [last visited 11 October 2010].
- Middle East Media Research Institute, “Iranian Supreme National Security Council Advisor: Circumstances May Arise Under Which Iran Will Require Uranium Enriched to 63%”, MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 2605, at http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/3717.htm [last visited 11 October 2010].
- David Albright and Jacqueline Shire, “Iran’s Enrichment for the Tehran Research Reactor: Update”, ISIS, at http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/irans-enrichment-for-the-tehran-research-reactor- update/8 [last visited 11 October 2010].
- Jay Deshmukh, “Iran Ready for Nuclear Fuel Exchange Inside Country”, AFP, at http://www.google. com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jMz9EJHqT3YxqBfFxd9ibM0vTK-A [last visited 11 October 2010].
- Letter from French Ambassador Florence Mangin, Russian Ambassador Alexander Zmeyevskiy and American Ambassador Glyn T. Davies to IAEA Director-General Yukiya Amano, at http://www. politico.com/static/PPM138_100216_document.html [last visited 11 October 2010].
- Letter from President Barack Obama to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, at http://www. politicaexterna.com/11023/brazil-iran-turkey-nuclear-negotiations-obamas-letter-to-lula [last visited 11 October 2010].
- See, for example, Remarks by Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorin, IISS Global Strategic Review Conference, Geneva, at http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-review/global-strategic- review-2010/plenary-sessions-and-speeches-2010/second-plenary-session/qa/ [last visited 11 October 2010].
- “Interview with Mohamed ElBaradei”, (in Portuguese), Jornal do Brasil, 29 May 2010. English translation raceforiran.com/baradei-supports-the-iran-turkey-brazil-nuclear-deal-warns-against-sanctions-and- military-strikes+elbaradei+iran+brazil+%22yes+for+an+answer%22&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk [last visited 11 October 2010].
- ISSN: 1300-8641
- Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
- Başlangıç: 1996
- Yayıncı: T.C Dışişleri Bakanlığı
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