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• I would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for the valuable comments and suggestions to improve the quality of this analysis.
• “Barack Obama to Consider All Options to Stop Iran Getting Nuclear Weapons”, Telegraph, 14 November 2011.
• Michael Martinez, “Netanyahu Asks U.N. to Draw ‘Red Line’ on Iran’s Nuclear Plans”, CNN, at http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/27/world/new-york-unga/index.html [last visited 29 March 2014].
• Matthew Kroenig, “Time to Attack Iran: Why a Strike Is the Least Bad Option,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 91, No. 76 (2012); Jamie Fly and William Kristol, “No Iranian Nukes”, Weekly Standard, at http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/no-iranian-nukes_647326.html [last visited 29 March 2014].
• Stephen M Walt, The Origins of Alliances, New York, Cornell University Press, 1987.
• Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Principles & Problems of International Politics: Selected Readings, New York, Alfred A. Knopf, 1950, p. 103; Colin Elman, “Introduction: Appraising Blance of Power Theory”, in John A. Vasquez and Colin Elman (eds.), Realism and the Balancing of Power: A New Debate, Upper Saddle River, Prentice Hall, 2003, p. 8; Walt, The Origins of Alliances, p. 449.
• Susan Blair Martin, Balances of Power Versus Balancing: A Conceptual Analysis, Philadelphia, Browne Center for International Politics, 1999, p. 8; Robert A Pape, “Soft Balancing Against the United States”, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 1 (2005), p. 26; Jack S. Levy and William R. Thompson, “Hegemonic Threats and Great-power Balancing in Europe, 1495-1999”, Security Studies, Vol. 14, No. 1 (2005), p. 1; Timothy W. Crawford, “Wedge Strategy, Balancing, and the Deviant Case of Spain, 1940- 41”, Security Studies, Vol. 17, No. 1 (2008), p. 3.
• Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics, Long Grove, Waveland Press, 2010, p. 168.
• Kai He, “Undermining Adversaries: Unipolarity, Threat Perception, and Negative Balancing Strategies after the Cold War”, Security Studies, Vol. 21, No. 2 (2012), p. 161. 10 Ibid. 11 Ibid.
• Martin, Balances of Power Versus Balancing: A Conceptual Analysis, p. 8.
• Power or capability is here understood as an aggregate concept that encompasses a state’s total re-sources, such as its population, industrial and military capability and technological prowess (Walt, The Origins of Alliances, p. 22).
• He, “Undermining Adversaries”, p. 161. 15 Ibid., p. 163.
• Walt, The Origins of Alliances, p. 118- 221.
• Andreas Bock, (Un-)Sicherheitsfaktor Atombombe. Eine Analyse der Krise um das iranische Nuklearprogramm, Berlin, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2012; Andreas Bock, “Irans Sicherheit und die Atombombe. Über Rationalität und Wahrnehmung in der Nuklearkrise”, Zeitschrift für Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik, Vol. 6, No. 1 (2013), pp. 77-100.
• John H. Herz, “Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma”, World Politics, Vol. 2, No. 2 (1950), p. 157, italics in original.
• Walt, The Origins of Alliances, p. 22.
• Ibid., pp. 21-26. 22 Ibid., p. 22. 23 Ibid., p. 23. 24 Ibid., p. 24. 25 Ibid., p. 25-26.
• Andreas Bock and Ingo Henneberg, Why Balancing Fails. Theoretical Reflections on Stephan M. Walt’s “Balance of Threat” Theory, Arbeitspapiere zur Internationalen Politik und Außenpolitik (AIPA), Cologne, University of Cologne, 2013.
• Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence, New Haven, Yale University Press, 1966, p. 19. 28 Ibid.
• about?’ I said, ‘What you’re talking about would lead to war, and I know you’re too sensible
• a man to want to have war.’ He stopped a minute and looked at me and said, ‘You’re right’.”
• (Quoted in Lebow and Stein, We All Lost the Cold War, p. 390).
• Roswell L. Gilpatric, “Address Before the Business Council”, at http://www.gwu. edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB56/BerlinC6.pdf [last visited 29 March 2014].
• Bock, “Irans Sicherheit und die Atombombe. Über Rationalität und Wahrnehmung in der Nuklearkrise”, pp. 86-87.
• Lebow and Stein, We All Lost the Cold War, p. 5.
• John F. Kennedy, “President John F. Kennedy’s Speech Announcing the Quarantine Against Cuba, October 22, 1962”, at https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/kencuba.htm [last visited 29 March 2014].
• Robert Jervis, “Perceiving and Coping with Threats”, in Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein (eds.), Psychology and Deterrence, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1989, p. 18.
• Quoted in Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1976, p. 68.
• Richards J. Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Washington, US Government Printing Office, 1999, p. 7. 48 Ibid. 49 Ibid., p. 8.
• Also known as the Thomas theorem: “If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences” (William Thomas, The Child in America, Behavior Problems & Programs, New York, Alfred A. Knopf, 1928, p. 572).
• Bock und Henneberg, Why balancing fails. Theoretical reflections on Stephan M. Walt’s “Balance of Threat” Theory.
• This quote stems from the movie “War Games” (1983), in which the computer program responsible for the national defence of the United States recognises that the game “Thermonuclear War” cannot be won; it therefore concludes that there is only one reasonable move: not to play. This is the basic idea of nuclear deterrence.
• Reuven Pedatzur, “The Iranian Nuclear Threat and the Israeli Options”, Contemporary Security Policy Vol, 28, No. 3 (2007), p. 535.
• Yaakov Katz and Yoaz Hendel, Israel vs. Iran: The Shadow War, Sterling, Potomac Books, 2012, pp. 11-34.
• “Six-Party Talks, Beijing, China”, at http://www.state.gov/p/eap/regional/c15455.htm [last visited 29 March 2014].
• Bock, (Un-)Sicherheitsfaktor Atombombe eine Analyse der Krise um das iranische Nuklearprogramm, p. 6; Andreas Bock, “Iran nach der Wahl: Rohani der Hoffnungsträger?”, at http://justsecurityblog.wordpress.com/2013/06/18/iran-nach-der-wahl-rohani-der- hoffnungstrager/ [last visited 29 March 2014].
• Perthes, Iran–Eine Politische Herausforderung, p. 75.
• Glenn Kessler, “2003 Memo Says Iranian Leaders Backed Talks”, The Washington Post, at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/13/AR2007021301363. html [last visited 29 March 2014]; Nicholas D. Kristof, “Diplomacy at Its Worst,” The New York Times, at http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/29/opinion/29kristof.html [last visited 29 March 2014].
• Avner Cohen, The Worst-kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with the Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press, 2010, pp. 214-240; Avner Cohen, Israel and the Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press, 1999.
• Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy, Washington, United States Institute of Peace Press 1993, p. 34.
• For example, by imposing sanctions against Russia or by planning to reinforce troops in Eastern European NATO member states the US and EU are balancing against Russia using strategies that are intended to improve the US and European power and security position compared to that of Moscow (part of these strategies may also be descriebed as deterrence). In short: Balancing refers to all state strategies intended to weaken the power position of the state(s) perceived as a threat.
• Bock, (Un-)Sicherheitsfaktor Atombombe eine Analyse der Krise um das iranische Nuklearprogramm; Bock “Irans Sicherheit und die Atombombe. Über Rationalität und Wahrnehmung in der Nuklearkrise”.
• Blight, Lang and Byrne, Becoming Enemies: US-Iran Relations and the Iran-Iraq War, 1979- 1988, pp. 25–54; Bock, “Irans Sicherheit und die Atombombe. Über Rationalität und Wahrnehmung in der Nuklearkrise”, pp. 82-83.
• Low points in the Iran-US relations were the 444 day-long hostage crisis (from 4 November 1979 to 10 January 1981) and the US support of Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.
• Barack Obama, “A New Beginning”, at http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/04/us/ politics/04obama.text.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1& [last visited 29 March 2014].
• Perthes, “Iran- Eine Politische Herausforderung”, p. 129.
• Bock, “Iran nach der Wahl”.
• Perthes, Iran- Eine Politische Herausforderung, p. 123.
• Robert Jervis, “Getting to Yes With Iran: The Challenges of Coercive Diplomacy”, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 92, No. 1 (January/ February 2013).
• Jones, “Iran’s Threat Perceptions and Arms Control Policies”, p. 39.
• “Six-Party Talks, Beijing, China”.
• Robert Litwak, Regime Change: US Strategy through the Prism of 9/11, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2007, pp. 169- 172.
• Quoted in Jervis, “Getting to Yes With Iran The Challenges of Coercive Diplomacy”.