Cihat KARADEMİR, Şekip YAZGAN, Reşat CEYLAN

DÖVİZ KURU VE TİCARET DENGESİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Döviz kuru ve ticaret dengesi arasındaki teorik ilişki, Marshall-Lerner Koşulu ve J-eğrisi hipotezi ile açıklanmaktadır. Yerel paranın reel olarak değer kaybetmesi ihracatı daha ucuz, ithalatı ise daha pahalı hale getirmekte ve dolayısıyla ticaret dengesi iyileşmektedir. Marshall-Lerner Koşulu, yerel paranın reel olarak değer kaybetmesinin başarısının ithalat ve ihracat talep esnekliklerinin toplamının birden büyük olup olmadığına bağlı olduğunu ifade etmektedir. Bunun yanında, yerel paranın reel olarak değer kaybetmesinin ticaret dengesi üzerinde hemen bir etki yaratmadığı, aksine ticaret dengesini uzun vadede iyileştirmeden önce kısa vadede kötüleştireceğini ileri sürülmektedir. Devalüasyonun zaman içerisinde ticaret dengesini nasıl etkilediğini yansıtan Marshall-Lerner Koşulunun dinamik görünümünü ifade eden bu durum J-eğrisi hipotezi olarak adlandırılmaktadır. Çalışmada, 2010:1-2022:12 döneminde Türkiye’de döviz kuru ve ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Kullanılan değişkenler arasında asimetrik ilişkinin bulunması nedeniyle, döviz kuru ve ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişki Doğrusal Olmayan Gecikmesi Dağılmış Otoregresif Model (NARDL) yaklaşımı ile incelenmektedir. Çalışmada ulaşılan sonuçlar, Türkiye’de inceleme döneminde J-eğrisi hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Dış Ticaret Dengesi, NARDL, J-Eğrisi Hipotezi

THE EXCHANGE RATE AND THE BALANCE OF TRADE: THE CASE OF TÜRKİYE

The theoretical connection between the exchange rate and the trade balance is explained by the Marshall-Lerner Condition and the J-curve hypothesis. A real depreciation of the local currency makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive, thus improving the trade balance. According to the Marshall-Lerner Condition, the success of real depreciation of the local currency depends on whether the sum of the elasticities of the import and export demand is more than one. Moreover, it is argued that a real depreciation of the local currency does not have an immediate impact on the trade balance, but rather deteriorates it in the short term before getting better in the long term. This is called the J-curve hypothesis, which expresses the dynamic view of the Marshall-Lerner Condition that reflects how devaluation affects the trade balance over time. The purpose of the study is to examine the relationship between the exchange rate and trade balance in Türkiye for the period 2010:1-2022:12. Due to the asymmetric relationship between the variables used, this relationship is analyzed with the Nonlinear Lag Distributed Autoregressive Model (NARDL) approach. The outcomes of the study reveal that the J-curve hypothesis is valid in Türkiye during the period under review.

Keywords:

Foreign Trade Balance, NARDL, J-Curve Hypothesis,

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