Limanlar ve suyolları emniyet değerlendirmesi (LVSED) yöntemini kullanarak İstanbul Boğazı risk değerlendirmesi

Limanlar ve suyolları emniyet değerlendirmesi (LVSED), risk analizinin ve yönetiminin eş zamanlı olarak yapıldığı AHP tabanlı kapsamlı ve karmaşık bir Delfi yöntemdir. Öncelikle denizcilik alanı için geliştirilen LVSED’in, diğer alanlardaki risk analizi uygulamalarına da genişletilmesi gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmanın ilk amacı, LVSED sürecini tanıtmak ve metodolojisini akademik yazına kazandırmaktır. Bu çalışmada LVSED’in önemi gösterilmiş ve ileride geliştirilmesi için inovatif öneriler verilmiştir. İkinci olarak seyir risklerini elde etmek ve alınan tedbirlerin verimliliğini ölçmek için PAWSA metodu İstanbul Boğazı’na uygulanmıştır. Seyir durumları, gemi kondisyonları, trafik yoğunluğu ve suyolu karakteristiği risklerini analiz etmektedir. Son olarak, deniz kazalarını minimize etmek ve yeni karşı önlemler ortaya koyarak seyir emniyetini artırmak amaçlanmaktadır. İstanbul Boğazı, dünyada seyri en zorlarından biri ve dünyanın en dar kanalıdır. Stratejik ve coğrafik lokasyonundan dolayı İstanbul Boğazı yoğun bir trafiğe sahiptir. Yıllık istatistiklere göre, trafik yoğunluğu Süveyş Kanalı’ndan iki kat, Panama Kanalı’ndan üç kat daha fazladır. Yoğun yerel trafiğin yanında, Boğaz toplam tonajı 600 milyon olan yaklaşık olarak 50.000 uluslararası gemi tarafından kullanılmaktadır. Istanbul’da 15 milyon insan yaşamakta ve hergün 300.000 kişi İstanbul Boğazını kullanarak Asya’dan Avrupa’ya seyehat etmektedir. Dolayısıyla İstanbul Boğazı deniz taşımacılığı için güvenelir bir metot ile kapsamlı bir risk analizinin yapılması gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Risk analizi, İstanbul boğazı, Risk yönetimi, Delfi yöntemi, LVSED

Risk assessment of the Istanbul Strait by using Ports and Waterways Safety Assessment (PAWSA) method

Ports and Waterways Safety Assessment (PAWSA) is a comprehensive and sophisticated AHP-based Delphi method in which risk analysis and risk management are handled simultaneously. PAWSA has primarily developed for maritime domain, and there is a need to extend such risk analyses to the other fields. First aim of this study is to introduce PAWSA process and to add its methodology to existing academic literature. Significance of PAWSA is exhibited and innovative suggestions for further developments are given in this study. Secondly, PAWSA method is employed for Istanbul Strait to obtain the levels of navigational risks and to measure effectiveness of counter actions. It analyses risks of navigation situations, the conditions of vessels, traffic intensity and waterway characteristics. Ultimately, it is aimed to minimize the marine incidents and increase navigational safety by introducing new counter actions. The Istanbul Strait is one of the most difficult-to-navigate and the narrowest international waterway in the world. The Istanbul Strait has a dense traffic because of its geographical and strategic location. According to annual statistics, traffic density is two times more than the Suez Canal and three times more than the Panama Canal. Besides the heavy local traffic, the Strait is used by approximately 50.000 international vessels with a total gross tonnage of 600 million. 15 million people live in Istanbul and 300.000 people are transported daily from Asia to Europe using Istanbul Strait. A comprehensive risk analysis by a convenient method for the Istanbul Strait is therefore required for safe maritime transportation.

Keywords:

Risk analysis, Istanbul strait, Risk management, Delphi method, PAWSA,

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