İşsizlik Histerisi ve Doğal İşsizlik Oranı Yaklaşımlarının MENA Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Bir Analizi

Bu çalışma, MENA Ülkelerinde doğal işsizlik oranı ve işsizlik histerisi yaklaşımlarını, yatay kesit bağımlılık özelliklerini dikkate alan panel veri analizi yöntemleri kullanılarak 1991-2014 dönemi için test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Yatay kesit bağımlılık testi sonuçları, tüm değişkenler için yatay kesit bağımlılığın olduğunu göstermektedir. CADF test sonuçlarına göre tüm ülkelerde işsizlik oranları birim kök içermektedir, CIPS test sonucuna göre ise MENA ülkelerinde işsizlik oranları birim kök içermektedir. Bu bağlamda bölgenin tümünde işsizlik oranları üzerinde görülebilecek bir şokun etkisi kalıcı olmaktadır. Bu nedenle; bölge ülkelerinde işsizlik histerisi yaklaşımının geçerli olduğu söylenebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Doğal İşsizlik, İşsizlik Histerisi; MENA Ülkeleri; Panel Veri Birim Kök Analizi

An Empirical Analyses of Unemployment Hysteresis and Natural Rate of Unemployment Approaches for MENA Countries

This paper aims to test natural rate of unemployment and approach of unemployment hysteresis in MENA*** countries for the period of 1991-2014 by using panel data analysis methods which considering the cross-sectional dependency properties. Cross-sectional dependency test results indicate that there is cross-section dependency among all variables. According to CADF test results, unemployment rates in all countries have unit root. According to the CIPS test results, unemployment rates in MENA countries has unit root. In this context, all the impact of a shock can be seen on the unemployment rate in the mentioned region is permanent. Therefore; it can be said that the current approach of unemployment hysteresis in the region countries are valid.

Keywords:

Natural Unemployment, Unemployment Hysteresis; MENA Countries; Panel Data Unit Root Analysis,

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